Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Finals

Luciano Darderi vs Jesper de Jong Prediction

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #59
54%
VS

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #106
46%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current Rank: #59 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #47 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #45 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #44 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #35 (2024-07-15)

Jesper de Jong

  • Current Rank: #106 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #94 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #111 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #108 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #114 (2024-07-15)

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 63.3
ELO Rating: 1236.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 417.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 10.9
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.2

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 61.1
ELO Rating: 833.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 501.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-1) clay Bastad 153 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (1-0) clay Bastad 64 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (2-0) clay Bastad 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-1) clay Bastad 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jordan Thompson (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Jesper de Jong
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) clay Bastad 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-1) clay Bastad 160 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Bastad 147 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra (2-0) clay Bastad 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luciano Darderi
vs
0
Jesper de Jong
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The finals of the Bastad tournament in Sweden feature a showdown on clay between Luciano Darderi and Jesper de Jong. Darderi is slightly favored to win with a probability of 54.41%, while de Jong has a 45.59% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is set at 24.0.

Match Analysis

Luciano Darderi comes into this match ranked 59th, with a form index of 63.26, indicating solid recent performances. His Elo rating stands at 1236.79, demonstrating his competitiveness, particularly on clay with a surface strength index of 10.89. Darderi's cumulative fatigue is at 417 minutes, which is manageable given the intensity of the tournament. In contrast, Jesper de Jong, ranked 106th, has a form index of 61.14 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 833.87. While de Jong's surface strength index of 7.66 suggests potential, he is at a disadvantage in terms of fatigue, having accumulated 501 minutes on court. A notable difference between the two players is seen in their mean serve index, where Darderi holds an edge with a score of 96.91 compared to de Jong's 95.49. This 1.42-point gap, while not greater than 5, is indicative of Darderi's stronger serving capabilities. The mean return index also shows a close contest, with Darderi at 86.22 and de Jong slightly higher at 86.98, ensuring both players can capitalize on their opponent's serve effectively.

Final Prediction

Luciano Darderi's slight advantage in serve effectiveness and higher ranking gives him the edge going into this final. His recent form and lower fatigue level compared to Jesper de Jong will be crucial. A key factor to watch will be how each player manages their stamina throughout the match, especially given de Jong's higher fatigue levels.