Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Prediction

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #38
40%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #59
60%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current Rank: #38 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #35 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #28 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #19 (2024-07-15)

Luciano Darderi

  • Current Rank: #59 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #47 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #45 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #44 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #35 (2024-07-15)

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 21.6
ELO Rating: 1059.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1622.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 124.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 89.4

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 61.1
ELO Rating: 1165.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 200.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (2-1) clay Bastad 124 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Draper (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1-2) clay Hamburg 145 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (1-2) clay Rome 152 min

Luciano Darderi
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (2-0) clay Bastad 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-1) clay Bastad 129 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jordan Thompson (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fery (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Safiullin (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

3
Sebastian Baez
vs
1
Luciano Darderi
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
2 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the ATP 250 tournament in Båstad, Sweden, Sebastian Baez is set to face Luciano Darderi on clay. The match is expected to be competitive, with Darderi predicted to emerge as the winner, holding a probability of 60.08% compared to Baez's 39.92%. The anticipated total number of games played is 24.0.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez, currently ranked 38th, has a form index of 21.59 and an Elo rating of 1059.49. His cumulative fatigue in the tournament stands at 124 minutes, which may impact his performance. Baez exhibits a surface strength index of 9.50, alongside a mean serve index of 96.50 and a mean return index of 89.42. On the other hand, Luciano Darderi, ranked 59th, displays a stronger form index of 61.10 and an Elo rating of 1165.78, indicating better recent performance. Darderi's fatigue level is higher at 200 minutes, but he boasts a superior surface strength index of 10.48. The difference in their mean serve indexes is marginal at 0.95 points, while the mean return index shows a gap of 3.12 points, favoring Baez but not by a large margin. In their recent match performances, Baez has faced challenges, winning against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in a hard-fought match but losing two prior contests, including a straight-set defeat at Wimbledon. Darderi, conversely, enters this match with a solid record, winning his last two matches at Båstad, one of which was a straightforward victory against Elias Ymer, and another against Raphael Collignon in a competitive encounter.

Final Prediction

Luciano Darderi holds the edge due to his higher form index and recent successes on clay, indicating better adaptability to the surface and current conditions. A key factor to observe in this match will be how fatigue influences each player's stamina, especially considering Darderi's higher cumulative fatigue and its potential impact on his performance as the match progresses.