Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #20
61%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #59
39%
Expected Total Games: 27.6
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

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Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #20 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #45 2025-05-19

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #59 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #90 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #104 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #133 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #137 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 60.5
ELO Rating: 1808.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1817.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 109.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.9
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 89.9

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 48.7
ELO Rating: 1672.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1754.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 135.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.8
Clay: 24.2
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.2

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Yannick Hanfmann
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Max Schoenhaus (2-1) clay Hamburg 135 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Rome 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-1) clay Rome 139 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Madrid 100 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) clay Madrid 143 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Luciano Darderi
vs
0
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
2 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Hamburg, Germany, at the 500-level clay event, the Round of 16 pits Luciano Darderi against Yannick Hanfmann in a contrast of form and freshness. The model favors Darderi (61.41%) over Hanfmann (38.59%), with a predicted total of about 27.6 games for the match.

Match Analysis

Darderi arrives ranked 20 with an Elo of 1808 and a form index of 60.5; his surface strength on clay (35.9) and strong return index (89.9) underline his comfort on slower courts. He has accumulated 109 minutes on court in this tournament, a moderate fatigue load compared with his opponent. Hanfmann is ranked 59 with an Elo of 1672, a lower form index (48.7) and a surface strength index of 24.2, and he carries heavier tournament fatigue at 135 minutes. Both players show very similar serve profiles—mean serve indices are nearly identical—so there is no clear serving-edge in raw serve rating. The return indices differ by less than five points, so neither player holds a decisive advantage in that metric either. Over the last three matches Darderi is 2-1: a straight-sets win in Hamburg (109 minutes) and a tough three-set win in Rome, countered by a straight-sets loss to Casper Ruud. Hanfmann is also 2-1 in his last three, including a lengthy 135-minute win in Hamburg and a notable victory over Hurkacz in Rome, with his lone recent loss coming to Darderi in Rome. That prior meeting gives Darderi a demonstrable recent edge head-to-head coming into this clash.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.6 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luciano Darderi - Yannick Hanfmann) +1.5 Most likely spread: +1 (Luciano Darderi wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 11.14 total, while the expected double faults are approximately 4.09. Clay’s slower pace and higher bounce tend to suppress ace totals and can increase pressure-related errors, so the predicted aces are moderate and the expected double faults reflect possible fatigue effects. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating to push the predicted aces markedly higher, so the surface effect is likely the dominant influence on these figures.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.1 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luciano Darderi's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (40.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s higher ranking, stronger Elo, better form index and superior clay-specific numbers give him the edge, alongside a recent head-to-head win. Watch the return games and fitness late in rallies—who can convert break chances and avoid late-match double faults will likely decide the outcome.

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