Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Mackenzie McDonald vs Alex de Minaur: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Mackenzie McDonald

Rank: #112
18%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
82%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Mackenzie McDonald

  • Current Rank: #112 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #110 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #95 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #97 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #130 (2025-01-13)

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #6 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #7 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #7 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #8 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Mackenzie McDonald

Form Index: 64.4
ELO Rating: 530.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1548.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.0
Clay: 2.9
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 72.8
Return Rating: 61.6

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 56.7
ELO Rating: 4080.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1853.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 75.1
Clay: 82.4
Grass: 82.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 91.5

Recent Matches

Mackenzie McDonald
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Liam Draxl (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Grenier (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Dmitry Popko (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) hard Vienna 100 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Vienna 71 min

Alex de Minaur
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Paris 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Paris 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-1) hard Paris 157 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Vienna 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) hard Vienna 103 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mackenzie McDonald
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 of the Australian Open, Mackenzie McDonald faces off against Alex de Minaur on hard courts in Australia. With de Minaur ranked 6th and boasting an 82.27% probability of winning, he is heavily favored to advance past McDonald, who has a 17.73% chance of victory. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 38 games.

Match Analysis

Mackenzie McDonald currently holds a rank of 112, with a form index of 64.39 and an Elo rating of 530.25. His fatigue level is relatively high at 522 minutes of cumulative play in the current tournament. In contrast, Alex de Minaur, ranked 6th, showcases a significantly superior form index of 56.67 and a robust Elo rating of 4080. He also benefits from zero cumulative fatigue, giving him a physical edge. Notably, de Minaur's mean serve index of 96.07 exceeds McDonald's mean serve index of 72.76 by over 23 points, indicating a strong serving capability that could dominate the match. Additionally, de Minaur's mean return index of 91.54 surpasses McDonald’s return index by nearly 30 points, further solidifying his advantage. In terms of recent performances, McDonald has had a mixed run in his last three matches. He won against Hugo Grenier and Dmitry Popko but lost to Liam Draxl, indicating inconsistency. On the other hand, de Minaur has shown resilience, winning two out of his last three matches, including a victory over Karen Khachanov. His only recent loss came against Alexander Bublik, but his overall performance has been strong.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.0 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 15.92 aces, with a predicted total of approximately 5.94 double faults. Given that hard courts are conducive to both powerful serving and effective returning, the predicted aces will likely reflect the serve strengths of both players. With de Minaur's high serve index, he is expected to contribute a substantial number of aces, while McDonald may struggle to match this output.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur is positioned for success in this matchup, primarily due to his superior serve and return capabilities, along with McDonald's current fatigue levels. A key factor to monitor will be de Minaur's ability to maintain pressure on McDonald's serve, as this could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.

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