Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Nuno Borges vs Mariano Navone: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nuno Borges

Rank: #49
55%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #45
45%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Nuno Borges

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 42.8
ELO Rating: 1604.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1642.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.0
Clay: 41.3
Grass: 43.0
Serve Rating: 75.9
Return Rating: 64.9

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 52.7
ELO Rating: 1615.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1670.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.7
Clay: 43.1
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 93.3

Recent Matches

Nuno Borges

Mariano Navone

  • Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (0-2) clay Barcelona 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Daniel Merida (2-1) clay Bucharest 137 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) clay Bucharest 211 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex Molcan (2-1) clay Bucharest 138 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Elmer Moller (2-0) clay Bucharest 78 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Nuno Borges
vs
0
Mariano Navone
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Madrid Masters 1000, opening-round clay match in Spain pits Nuno Borges against Mariano Navone in the round of 128. The forecast gives Borges the edge — predicted winner Nuno Borges (55.17%) over Mariano Navone (44.83%) — with an expected total of about 23.1 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Borges enters ranked 49 with a form index of 42.80 and an Elo of 1604.44; he shows a surface strength index of 41.28 and carries no tournament fatigue. Navone is slightly higher ranked at 45, with a stronger recent form index (52.67) and a marginally higher Elo (1615.49); his surface strength sits at 43.12 and he also arrives fresh. There is a pronounced serving and returning gap: Navone’s mean serve index (97.03) outstrips Borges’s (75.93) by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (93.29) is substantially higher than Borges’s (64.95). Those differences are significant and shape tactical expectations. Looking at recent matches, Borges won two of his last three on clay in Barcelona, beating Tomas Martin Etcheverry (121 minutes) and Adrian Mannarino (82 minutes) before a straight-sets loss to Hamad Medjedovic (94 minutes). Navone likewise has two wins in his last three, grinding out victories in Bucharest over Daniel Merida (137 minutes) and Botic van de Zandschulp (211 minutes) but falling to Andrey Rublev in Barcelona (112 minutes). Both players show comfort in long clay battles, with Navone’s recent results reflecting heavier workloads in extended matches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Nuno Borges versus Mariano Navone. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Nuno Borges versus Mariano Navone. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nuno Borges - Mariano Navone) +4.1 Most likely spread: +4 (Nuno Borges wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Nuno Borges versus Mariano Navone. Positive values indicate Nuno Borges winning more games, negative values indicate Mariano Navone winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Nuno Borges versus Mariano Navone. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match sits at a modest total — predicted aces around 12.32 — reflecting clay’s slower pace that suppresses outright free points. Expected double faults are 5.67 for the match; the surface’s physical demands can elevate the double faults prediction as rallies lengthen and pressure rises. Given Navone’s significantly higher serve index, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the ace count despite clay’s dampening effect.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.3 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Nuno Borges versus Mariano Navone. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Nuno Borges versus Mariano Navone. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Nuno Borges versus Mariano Navone. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Nuno Borges versus Mariano Navone. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Borges’s narrow edge in the probabilities comes against a backdrop of Navone’s superior serve and return metrics, making this a finely balanced clash. The key factor to watch is how effectively Borges can neutralize Navone’s serve and extend rallies on clay — that tactical battle will likely decide the outcome.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel