Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #67
72%
VS

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Rank: #178
28%
Expected Total Games: 36.9
Predicted Winner: Martin Landaluce

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Player Metrics

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 46.6
ELO Rating: 1738.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1771.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.8
Clay: 13.6
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 91.9

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Form Index: 46.7
ELO Rating: 1614.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1751.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.2
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 90.8
Return Rating: 77.9

Recent Matches

Martin Landaluce

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

  • Last Match: vs Coleman Wong (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Daniil Glinka (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Andrej Martin (0-2) clay Kitzbuhel 70 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Martin Landaluce
vs
0
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, round of 128 on clay, Martin Landaluce is favored to advance in this Grand Slam meeting. The model gives Landaluce a 72.36% chance to win versus 27.64% for Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, with an expected total of about 36.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Landaluce comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 67) with a stronger Elo (1738 vs 1614) and a near-identical form index to Prado, so recent level appears comparable on paper. The clearest edge lies in Landaluce’s return profile: his mean return index (91.9) is more than 14 points higher than Prado’s (77.9), which should help him capitalize on shorter second serves and extend rallies on clay. Serve indexes are close (94.4 vs 90.8), so there’s no large serving disparity to change the dynamic drastically. Fatigue is a major contrast — Landaluce arrives fresh with zero minutes logged in this event, while Prado carries 348 minutes, which can matter over long clay battles. Both players show modest surface strength indices (13.6 and 15.4), indicating neither is a clay specialist by the provided metric. Form over the last three matches tells a complementary story. Landaluce reached deep in Rome, posting two straight wins then a competitive three-set loss to Daniil Medvedev; his recent matches include multiple two-set victories and a lengthy 143-minute contest. Prado has momentum at Roland Garros with back-to-back wins—both long 174-minute affairs—after a prior loss in Kitzbühel. Prado’s recent durability is evident, but the accumulated minutes at Paris amplify his fatigue figure.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.9 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Martin Landaluce versus Juan Carlos Prado Angelo. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Martin Landaluce versus Juan Carlos Prado Angelo. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Martin Landaluce - Juan Carlos Prado Angelo) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Martin Landaluce wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Martin Landaluce versus Juan Carlos Prado Angelo. Positive values indicate Martin Landaluce winning more games, negative values indicate Juan Carlos Prado Angelo winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Martin Landaluce versus Juan Carlos Prado Angelo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction (about 11.9 total) and predicted aces distribution will be tempered by clay’s slower surface, which generally reduces free points. The expected double faults (around 9.2) reflect both the surface and fatigue factors: longer rallies and tired servers often produce more miscues. Because serve ratings are similar, the ace count won’t be skewed heavily toward one player, but Prado’s accumulated court time could elevate his expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.9 Most likely: 11 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 9.2 Most likely: 9 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Martin Landaluce versus Juan Carlos Prado Angelo. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Martin Landaluce versus Juan Carlos Prado Angelo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Martin Landaluce versus Juan Carlos Prado Angelo. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Martin Landaluce versus Juan Carlos Prado Angelo. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Martin Landaluce's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (31.5%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Martin Landaluce's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Landaluce’s superior return game, higher Elo and freshness give him the edge on clay in this matchup. The key factor to watch is whether Prado’s match minutes begin to tell late in sets, manifesting in weaker serving and more double faults.

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