Martin Landaluce vs Matteo Arnaldi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Arnaldi comes mainly from his recent record by level, which adds 4.2 percentage points toward him. That is supported by a higher form index and Elo rating. Arnaldi is ranked 35 with a form index of 42.21 and an Elo of 1686.50. Landaluce is ranked 64 with a form index of 31.91 and an Elo of 1645.12. Fatigue also matters: Landaluce arrives with 116 minutes on court in this tournament while Arnaldi has no minutes recorded, giving Arnaldi a freshness advantage on paper. Age factors move slightly toward Landaluce, contributing 2.1 percentage points to his probability. Surface fit nudges Arnaldi by 0.8 points, though the raw surface strength indexes favor Landaluce at 26.17 versus Arnaldi at 13.87. Both players profile as capable servers with mean serve indexes very close: Landaluce 95.63 and Arnaldi 94.68. Mean return indexes are also similar with Landaluce 88.68 and Arnaldi 86.18. Neither serve or return gap exceeds five points, so no single player holds a clear serving or returning edge by those metrics. Form over the last three matches is mixed. Landaluce is 1-2, highlighted by a win here in Cincinnati over Jack Draper in a 116 minute match, with earlier losses in Toronto and Los Cabos. Arnaldi is also 1-2 in the listed recent matches, with a win over Fabian Marozsan and defeats against Tallon Griekspoor and an earlier listed loss.