Paris Paris Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #18
58%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #43
42%
Expected Total Games: 28.0
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Why the Model Favors Brandon Nakashima

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +2.3 Brandon Nakashima
Overall strength +1.8 Brandon Nakashima
Recent record by level +1.4 Brandon Nakashima
Head-to-head +1.0 Brandon Nakashima
Surface fit +1.0 Brandon Nakashima

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Brandon Nakashima. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #18 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #31 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #32 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #32 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #33 2025-11-03

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #43 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #40 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #100 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #58 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #63 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 33.6
ELO Rating: 1781.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1824.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.0
Clay: 19.4
Grass: 21.1
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.9

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 41.2
ELO Rating: 1711.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1721.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.5
Clay: 28.2
Grass: 13.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 84.4

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Matteo Berrettini
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Brandon Nakashima
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brandon Nakashima is a modest favourite, at 58% to Matteo Berrettini’s 42%, with the forecast pointing to 28.0 games. He is favoured in this Paris Round of 64 matchup, though the gap leaves Berrettini with a credible chance.

Match Analysis

Nakashima’s higher ranking, stronger overall level and better hard-court profile help explain the lean his way. He also has a slight advantage as a returner, which could matter in a match where both players are expected to serve effectively. Berrettini’s serve is close to Nakashima’s in strength, and his recent results include wins over Flavio Cobolli and Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Vienna, followed by a loss to Alex de Minaur. Nakashima’s listed recent results are less encouraging, with losses to Tallon Griekspoor and Flavio Cobolli, so the forecast rests more on his broader level and court fit than on momentum.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 28.0 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Brandon Nakashima - Matteo Berrettini) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Nakashima is projected for 10.2 aces and 1.6 double faults, while Berrettini is forecast for 10.6 aces and 2.1 double faults. Their similarly strong serve profiles point to close ace totals, with Berrettini projected slightly higher, while he is also expected to make a few more errors on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.7 Most likely: 18 aces Per player: Brandon Nakashima 10.2 + Matteo Berrettini 10.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.7 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Brandon Nakashima 1.6 + Matteo Berrettini 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 10.2 aces

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 10.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 1.6 double faults

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

57.5% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Brandon Nakashima's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (33.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Berrettini’s serving can narrow the gap if it helps him avoid giving Nakashima return chances. If Nakashima’s return advantage shows up consistently, it gives the favourite a way to disrupt that strength.

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