Matteo Berrettini vs Stan Wawrinka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Berrettini comes mainly from age, which shifts the prediction 6.9 percentage points toward him, followed by overall strength (4.9 points), recent record by level (3.8 points), recent form (2.0 points), and surface fit (1.4 points). Those drivers align with the raw numbers. Berrettini arrives ranked 43 with a form index of 43.03 and an Elo of 1716.82. His surface strength index on hard courts is 27.26 and his mean serve index is very high at 97.53. Fatigue is zero for both players after no prior minutes in this tournament. Wawrinka is ranked 127, with a form index of 33.64 and an Elo of 1521.26. His surface strength index reads 18.29 and his mean serve index is 94.79. Both players show similar return indexes around 86.3, so return quality is comparable. Recent results reinforce the model signals. Berrettini is 1-2 in his last three matches, with a hard court win in Cincinnati over Titouan Droguet and two recent losses in North American hard events. Wawrinka is 0-3 in his last three, with defeats on clay and a recent straight loss to Berrettini at Wimbledon shown in the form window. The recent pattern by level and form favors Berrettini, while Wawrinka’s lower rank and surface strength on hard courts help explain the gap in win probability.