Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Holger Rune Prediction

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #60
35%
VS

Holger Rune

Rank: #433
65%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

Why the Model Favors Holger Rune

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +5.1 Holger Rune
Recent record by level +4.8 Holger Rune
Serve & return game +3.2 Holger Rune
Head-to-head +2.5 Holger Rune
Overall record & opposition quality +1.9 Miomir Kecmanovic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Holger Rune. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #60 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #66 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #70 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #66 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-11-10

Holger Rune

  • Current #433 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #102 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #40 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #17 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-11-10

Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 36.1
ELO Rating: 1546.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1578.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 143.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.6
Clay: 12.7
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.3

Holger Rune

Form Index: 36.7
ELO Rating: 1724.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1728.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.3
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 20.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Holger Rune
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
1
Holger Rune
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Holger Rune is favored at 65% to Miomir Kecmanovic’s 35%, with 23.0 games expected. In this Stockholm Round of 16, the forecast points to a competitive match, but gives Rune the clearer advantage.

Match Analysis

Rune’s recent win over Zizou Bergs in straight sets gives him a positive start in Stockholm. Kecmanovic also won his opener, beating Arthur Rinderknech, but needed 143 minutes, compared with Rune’s 86, leaving him with more court time in the tournament. Rune’s stronger hard-court profile and the favorable head-to-head lean help explain his advantage. Kecmanovic’s stronger broader record against quality opposition is a counterweight, and his return game is marginally stronger, but the recent-form and level comparisons favor Rune.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Miomir Kecmanovic - Holger Rune) -2.0 Most likely spread: -3 (Holger Rune wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Rune is projected to hit 7.8 aces and 2.4 double faults, while Kecmanovic is projected for 5.3 aces and 1.7 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, though Rune’s higher expected ace count points to more direct points, and the hard court’s consistent bounce should give both players chances to attack second serves.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Miomir Kecmanovic 5.3 + Holger Rune 7.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Miomir Kecmanovic 1.7 + Holger Rune 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Miomir Kecmanovic

Expected 5.3 aces

Holger Rune

Expected 7.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Miomir Kecmanovic

Expected 1.7 double faults

Holger Rune

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Miomir Kecmanovic's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (38.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s stronger return could put pressure on Rune’s serve and make the match tighter than the forecast suggests. If that return advantage does not translate into enough pressure, Rune’s hard-court edge and fresher legs make him the more likely winner.

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