Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Tristan Schoolkate vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tristan Schoolkate

Rank: #108
28%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #84
72%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

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Ranking Trends

Tristan Schoolkate

  • Current #108 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #100 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #96 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #128 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #133 2025-02-24

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #84 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #52 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #42 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #46 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #44 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Tristan Schoolkate

Form Index: 23.9
ELO Rating: 592.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1525.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.8
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 84.5
Return Rating: 71.2

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 41.3
ELO Rating: 1036.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.2
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Tristan Schoolkate
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Miomir Kecmanovic
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) hard Delray Beach 135 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) hard Delray Beach 62 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-2) hard Dallas 118 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-1) hard Dallas 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-1) hard Dallas 124 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tristan Schoolkate
vs
0
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Acapulco (Mexico), Round of 32 on outdoor hard courts at a 500-level event — a medium-paced surface with a consistent bounce. Miomir Kecmanovic is the clear favorite here: the model projects him to win with a 71.98% probability versus Tristan Schoolkate at 28.02%, and it expects about 23.72 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Schoolkate (rank 108) comes in with a lower Elo (592.59) and a form index of 23.90; his surface strength index is modest (2.84) and he shows a strong serving metric for his level (mean serve index 84.51). Kecmanovic (rank 84) has a markedly higher Elo (1036.69) and a stronger recent form index of 41.27, plus a higher surface strength (9.22). There is a notable gap in serve and return numbers: Kecmanovic’s mean serve index (97.85) exceeds Schoolkate’s by more than 13 points, and his mean return index (91.65) is over 20 points higher — both differences are large enough to matter on hard courts. Neither player arrives with accumulated tournament fatigue. Over their last three matches, Schoolkate has shown mixed results on hard courts: a recent loss to Coleman Wong (straight sets), a 2-0 win over Murphy Cassone, and a 0-3 defeat to Corentin Moutet at the Australian Open. Kecmanovic has also been inconsistent: a 1-2 loss to Learner Tien, a solid 2-0 win over Mattia Bellucci, and a 1-2 loss to Ben Shelton. These recent results reflect sporadic wins but overall favor Kecmanovic’s higher underlying metrics.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tristan Schoolkate - Miomir Kecmanovic) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 10.28 total, and the predicted aces skew toward the player with the stronger serve. The expected double faults are 3.75 for the match. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate — more than clay but less than grass — and the expected double faults remain low. Given Kecmanovic’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to be the primary contributor to the match’s ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s superior Elo, higher serve and return indices, and stronger form index give him a clear edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is how Schoolkate handles Kecmanovic’s serve and whether he can generate break opportunities against a player with far stronger return metrics.

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