Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Reilly Opelka: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Rank: #135
27%
VS

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #60
73%
Expected Total Games: 39.3
Predicted Winner: Reilly Opelka

Ranking Trends

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

  • Current Rank: #135 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #137 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #253 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #305 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #506 (2025-01-13)

Reilly Opelka

  • Current Rank: #60 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #62 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #74 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #103 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #170 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Form Index: 78.0
ELO Rating: 514.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1517.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.3
Clay: 3.1
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 51.6
Return Rating: 52.6

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 39.7
ELO Rating: 867.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.7
Clay: 17.9
Grass: 20.2
Serve Rating: 99.8
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs James McCabe (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Yosuke Watanuki (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Clement Tabur (0-2) hard Metz 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) hard Vienna 69 min

Reilly Opelka
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Adelaide 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Adelaide 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (1-2) hard Brisbane 149 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Dane Sweeny (2-0) hard Brisbane 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (1-2) hard Paris 127 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
vs
0
Reilly Opelka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Reilly Opelka at the Australian Open marks an important Round of 128 encounter on hard courts. Based on current form and statistical analysis, Reilly Opelka is predicted to win with a probability of 72.74%, while Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has a 27.26% chance of success. The match is expected to feature approximately 39.27 games.

Match Analysis

Reilly Opelka, currently ranked 60th, boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 867.10 compared to Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's 514.54, illustrating Opelka's higher competitive level. While Budkov Kjaer shows a form index of 78.02, Opelka's form index is lower at 39.70, indicating that Budkov Kjaer has performed better in recent matches. Fatigue could be a factor; Budkov Kjaer has accumulated 522 minutes of court time in the tournament, whereas Opelka has no recorded fatigue as he has played fewer matches in the current events. Notably, Opelka's mean serve index stands at an impressive 99.78, while Budkov Kjaer's is at 51.65, showcasing a substantial gap of over 48 points in serving capabilities, which could be crucial in this matchup. Reviewing their recent performances, Budkov Kjaer enters this match on a three-match winning streak in the Australian Open, showing resilience and adaptability on hard courts. In contrast, Opelka has experienced a mixed bag, losing his last match against Tommy Paul but securing a convincing win against Alexei Popyrin two matches prior. These results suggest that Budkov Kjaer may be in better form heading into this contest.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.3 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

With an expected total of 25.39 aces predicted for this match, the hard court surface is expected to facilitate a moderate number of aces, making it conducive for both players to utilize their serving strengths. Given Opelka's significantly higher mean serve index, he is likely to dominate in the aces prediction category. Additionally, the expected double faults are projected at 6.58, which may reflect the tension of the match but is not excessively high for a Grand Slam setting.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 25.4 Most likely: 25 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Reilly Opelka's advantage in serving strength, coupled with Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's accumulated fatigue, positions Opelka as the favored competitor. A key factor to watch will be Opelka's ability to leverage his powerful serve to gain an upper hand in the early stages of the match, potentially determining the outcome.

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