Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Reilly Opelka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Rank: #135
27%
VS

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #60
73%
Expected Total Games: 39.3
Predicted Winner: Reilly Opelka

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Player Metrics

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Form Index: 78.0
ELO Rating: 514.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1517.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.3
Clay: 3.1
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 51.6
Return Rating: 52.6

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 39.7
ELO Rating: 867.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.7
Clay: 17.9
Grass: 20.2
Serve Rating: 99.8
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Reilly Opelka

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
vs
0
Reilly Opelka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Reilly Opelka at the Australian Open marks an important Round of 128 encounter on hard courts. Based on current form and statistical analysis, Reilly Opelka is predicted to win with a probability of 72.74%, while Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has a 27.26% chance of success. The match is expected to feature approximately 39.27 games.

Match Analysis

Reilly Opelka, currently ranked 60th, boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 867.10 compared to Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's 514.54, illustrating Opelka's higher competitive level. While Budkov Kjaer shows a form index of 78.02, Opelka's form index is lower at 39.70, indicating that Budkov Kjaer has performed better in recent matches. Fatigue could be a factor; Budkov Kjaer has accumulated 522 minutes of court time in the tournament, whereas Opelka has no recorded fatigue as he has played fewer matches in the current events. Notably, Opelka's mean serve index stands at an impressive 99.78, while Budkov Kjaer's is at 51.65, showcasing a substantial gap of over 48 points in serving capabilities, which could be crucial in this matchup. Reviewing their recent performances, Budkov Kjaer enters this match on a three-match winning streak in the Australian Open, showing resilience and adaptability on hard courts. In contrast, Opelka has experienced a mixed bag, losing his last match against Tommy Paul but securing a convincing win against Alexei Popyrin two matches prior. These results suggest that Budkov Kjaer may be in better form heading into this contest.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.3 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Nicolai Budkov Kjaer versus Reilly Opelka. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Nicolai Budkov Kjaer versus Reilly Opelka. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Reilly Opelka) -1.0 Most likely spread: -1 (Reilly Opelka wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Nicolai Budkov Kjaer versus Reilly Opelka. Positive values indicate Nicolai Budkov Kjaer winning more games, negative values indicate Reilly Opelka winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Nicolai Budkov Kjaer versus Reilly Opelka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

With an expected total of 25.39 aces predicted for this match, the hard court surface is expected to facilitate a moderate number of aces, making it conducive for both players to utilize their serving strengths. Given Opelka's significantly higher mean serve index, he is likely to dominate in the aces prediction category. Additionally, the expected double faults are projected at 6.58, which may reflect the tension of the match but is not excessively high for a Grand Slam setting.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 25.4 Most likely: 25 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Nicolai Budkov Kjaer versus Reilly Opelka. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Nicolai Budkov Kjaer versus Reilly Opelka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Nicolai Budkov Kjaer versus Reilly Opelka. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Nicolai Budkov Kjaer versus Reilly Opelka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Reilly Opelka's advantage in serving strength, coupled with Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's accumulated fatigue, positions Opelka as the favored competitor. A key factor to watch will be Opelka's ability to leverage his powerful serve to gain an upper hand in the early stages of the match, potentially determining the outcome.

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