Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Merida: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #117
32%
VS

Daniel Merida

Rank: #86
68%
Expected Total Games: 27.6
Predicted Winner: Daniel Merida

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Ranking Trends

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #117 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #137 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #108 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #112 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #157 2025-05-05

Daniel Merida

  • Current #86 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #183 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #171 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #169 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #335 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 60.6
ELO Rating: 1602.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1554.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 205.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 18.9
Grass: 16.6
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 91.5

Daniel Merida

Form Index: 65.8
ELO Rating: 1712.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1782.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 258.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.2
Clay: 22.8
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Daniel Merida
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
vs
0
Daniel Merida
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Rome on clay in the Masters 1000 opening round, Daniel Merida is favored to progress past Nikoloz Basilashvili. The model gives Merida a 68.45% chance to win versus 31.55% for Basilashvili, with a predicted total of about 27.6 games in the match (roughly a straight-sets affair).

Match Analysis

Basilashvili arrives ranked 117 with a form index of 60.6 and an Elo of 1602.2. His mean serve (95.5) and return indices (91.5) remain strong on paper, though his surface strength index is modest at 18.9 and he carries 205 minutes of court time into Rome. Merida, ranked 86, posts a higher form index (65.8) and an Elo of 1712.8, with a slightly lower serve index (94.6) and return index (88.6); his surface strength is 22.8 but fatigue is heavier at 258 minutes after a long recent match. Recent form shows both players arriving with two wins and a loss in their last three outings. Basilashvili beat Rinky Hijikata and Elmer Moller at Rome before a prior loss in Madrid; his match lengths include a 131-minute encounter and a shorter 74-minute win. Merida has also won two in Rome — a gruelling 150-minute win over Tomas Barrios Vera and a 108-minute victory over Mackenzie McDonald — after a straight-sets loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid. Those results underline Merida’s slightly better momentum and higher Elo, while his heavier minutes suggest fatigue could be a factor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.6 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nikoloz Basilashvili - Daniel Merida) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest: predicted aces total about 12.93. Clay’s slower speed and higher bounce typically reduce ace totals, which aligns with this projected figure. The expected double faults are 3.88 overall; given both players’ similar serve indices, neither should dominate the ace count, though fatigue — especially on Merida’s side — could elevate the expected double faults and influence serve consistency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Nikoloz Basilashvili's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (34.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Merida’s higher Elo and slightly better recent form give him the edge on clay, despite heavier minutes. Watch Merida’s endurance and serve hold under fatigue — it’s the key factor that could decide whether this match follows the prediction.

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