Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno Busta: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Machac

Rank: #58
64%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #68
36%
Expected Total Games: 25.4
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

Why the Model Favors Tomas Machac

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +5.3 Tomas Machac
Surface fit +4.5 Tomas Machac
Overall strength +3.0 Tomas Machac
Recent record by level +2.1 Tomas Machac
Recent form +2.0 Tomas Machac

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Tomas Machac. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Machac

  • Current #58 2026-08-03
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #31 2026-02-09
  • 9 mo ago #32 2025-11-10
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-08-18

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current #68 2026-08-03
  • 3 mo ago #91 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #105 2026-02-09
  • 9 mo ago #89 2025-11-10
  • 12 mo ago #113 2025-08-18

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 36.5
ELO Rating: 1755.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1802.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.9
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 88.2

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 36.2
ELO Rating: 1646.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1652.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 21.4
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 86.9

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Pablo Carreno Busta
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Royer (1-2) hard Toronto 136 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Luca Van Assche (1-2) clay Estoril 131 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Vilius Gaubas (2-0) clay Estoril 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1-2) clay Umag 164 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Matej Dodig (2-0) clay Umag 76 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cincinnati, Ohio. Round of 128 on hard court at a Masters 1000. The model favors Tomas Machac to advance, with a 63.76% chance of victory versus 36.24% for Pablo Carreño Busta. The match is expected to be relatively short by set count, with a projected total of about 25.43 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Machac comes mainly from age and surface fit, followed by overall strength and recent form. Age contributes about 5.3 percentage points toward Machac, reflecting a younger profile relative to career trajectory. Surface fit adds about 4.5 points in Machac’s favour, consistent with his stronger surface strength index than Carreño Busta. Machac sits at rank 58 with an Elo of 1755.95 and a form index of 36.49. His surface strength index is 29.91. Carreño Busta is ranked 68, with an Elo of 1646.45 and a form index of 36.15. His surface strength index is lower at 17.68. Both players arrive fresh to Cincinnati with zero minutes of fatigue recorded in this event. Serve and return profiles are similar. Machac’s mean serve index is 96.36 versus 95.25 for Carreño Busta. Mean return indices are 88.24 for Machac and 86.87 for Carreño Busta. Neither gap exceeds five points, so no large advantage emerges strictly on those metrics. Recent results tilt to Machac. Over his last three matches he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas and Zizou Bergs and then lost to Alexander Zverev at Roland Garros. Carreño Busta has won one of his last three, beating Vilius Gaubas, then losing to Luca Van Assche and Valentin Royer. The model also credits Machac for stronger recent-level performance and slightly better short term form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.4 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Machac - Pablo Carreno Busta) +0.6 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match is modest. The predicted aces total is 10.82. Predicted aces reflect the medium-paced hard court, which tends to produce a balanced ace count. Double faults prediction points to an expected double faults total of 4.09. If one server were substantially stronger, we would expect more aces, but the serve indices are close and so the aces prediction stays moderate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.8 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tomas Machac's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (37.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Machac’s edge is led by age and surface fit, with overall strength and recent results reinforcing the pick. Key factor to watch will be how both players convert on serve returns early, since neither shows a big serve index gap and breaks could decide a short match.

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