Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Rank: #290
38%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #49
62%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

Why the Model Favors Sebastian Baez

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +4.5 Sebastian Baez
Age +4.4 Sebastian Baez
Recent form +2.7 Sebastian Baez
Overall record & opposition quality +2.0 Sebastian Baez
Fatigue & recent workload +1.2 Sebastian Baez

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Sebastian Baez. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

  • Current #290 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #243 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #225 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #157 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #142 2025-10-20

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #49 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #56 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #64 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #36 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #43 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Form Index: 38.5
ELO Rating: 1544.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1574.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 244.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.1
Clay: 10.3
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.6

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 32.6
ELO Rating: 1574.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1673.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.6
Clay: 17.8
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 88.5

Recent Matches

Pierre-Hugues Herbert
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Maxim Mrva (2-1) hard Marseille 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jurij Rodionov (2-1) hard Marseille 134 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (1-2) hard Winston Salem 159 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Quinn Vandecasteele (1-2) hard Winston Salem 150 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Kenta Miyoshi (2-1) hard Winston Salem 128 min

Sebastian Baez
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Sebastian Baez is favored at 62%, with Pierre-Hugues Herbert at 38%, a meaningful but not decisive gap. The Round of 32 match is projected to total 24.6 games.

Match Analysis

The ranking gap, with Baez at 49 and Herbert at 290, reflects the broader level advantage behind the forecast. Baez also rates as the slightly stronger returner, which could help him blunt Herbert’s serve and take control of rallies. Herbert has won twice in Marseille, but those matches have added up to 244 minutes on court. Baez has no tournament minutes recorded, giving him a workload advantage alongside his ranking edge, despite Herbert’s stronger results at this event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Sebastian Baez) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Sebastian Baez wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Herbert is projected to hit 6.6 aces and 5.0 double faults, compared with 3.5 aces and 2.7 double faults for Baez. Herbert’s stronger serve should bring more free points, but his higher expected double-fault count could offer Baez chances on return.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.0 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Pierre-Hugues Herbert 6.6 + Sebastian Baez 3.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.6 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Pierre-Hugues Herbert 5.0 + Sebastian Baez 2.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Expected 6.6 aces

Sebastian Baez

Expected 3.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Expected 5.0 double faults

Sebastian Baez

Expected 2.7 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Pierre-Hugues Herbert's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (39.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Herbert’s serve could make the forecast less comfortable for Baez. If he can produce the expected ace threat while limiting double faults, he has a better chance of protecting his advantage in service games.

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