Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Quentin Halys

Rank: #88
35%
VS

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #72
65%
Expected Total Games: 42.1
Predicted Winner: Mattia Bellucci

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Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 33.6
ELO Rating: 1596.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.5
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 5.8
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 89.8

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 40.3
ELO Rating: 1590.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1581.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.5
Clay: 11.6
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys

  • Last Match: vs Jaime Faria (1-2) clay Madrid 166 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (1-2) clay Barcelona 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-1) clay Barcelona 139 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Emilio Nava (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Karim Bennani (1-2) clay Marrakech 137 min

Mattia Bellucci

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Quentin Halys
vs
1
Mattia Bellucci
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 128 on clay at the 2026 grand slam sees Quentin Halys face Mattia Bellucci. The model favors Bellucci to progress (65.06%) over Halys (34.94%), with a predicted total of about 42.06 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Halys (rank 88) arrives with an Elo of 1596.94, a form index of 33.57 and a surface strength index of 10.79. His serve and return indexes are both high (mean serve 97.12, mean return 89.78), suggesting he can threaten on both delivery and retrieval on any given day. Bellucci (rank 72) is slightly higher in the rankings, with Elo 1590.63, a stronger recent form index of 40.25 and a marginally higher surface strength index of 11.56. Both players show zero accumulated fatigue from this event, so freshness should not be a deciding factor early on. Looking at recent results, Halys has struggled for consistency on clay: three matches across Barcelona and Madrid produced one win (vs Arnaldi) and two straight-set defeats in other outings, including a long 166-minute match in Madrid. Bellucci's recent clay run in Rome is mixed but includes two wins (Burruchaga and a notable three-set victory over Etcheverry) before a loss to Landaluce; his matches ranged in length, including a 154-minute encounter. Overall, Bellucci’s slightly better form and a steadier string of wins on clay give him the edge despite similar Elo ratings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 42.1 Most likely outcome: 42 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Quentin Halys versus Mattia Bellucci. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Quentin Halys versus Mattia Bellucci. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Quentin Halys - Mattia Bellucci) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Mattia Bellucci wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Quentin Halys versus Mattia Bellucci. Positive values indicate Quentin Halys winning more games, negative values indicate Mattia Bellucci winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Quentin Halys versus Mattia Bellucci. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this tie sits at about 19.05 total, while the predicted double faults are 8.89. On slow clay the predicted aces are tempered—clay reduces free points and typically lowers ace counts—while expected double faults can creep up as rallies and pressure extend. Neither player posts a markedly superior serve index, so the ace count should be moderate rather than extreme.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.1 Most likely: 19 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 8.9 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Quentin Halys versus Mattia Bellucci. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Quentin Halys versus Mattia Bellucci. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Quentin Halys versus Mattia Bellucci. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Quentin Halys versus Mattia Bellucci. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Quentin Halys's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (29.0%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Quentin Halys's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Bellucci’s stronger recent form and marginally better surface profile underpin his projected advantage. The key factor to watch will be Halys’s return effectiveness against Bellucci’s baseline rhythm—how returns translate into break opportunities will likely decide this one.

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