Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #34
56%
VS

Quentin Halys

Rank: #88
44%
Expected Total Games: 40.5
Predicted Winner: Ugo Humbert

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Ranking Trends

Ugo Humbert

  • Current #34 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #37 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #23 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-05-26

Quentin Halys

  • Current #88 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #68 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #91 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #70 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 52.1
ELO Rating: 1702.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1747.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.1
Clay: 17.6
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.2

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 41.9
ELO Rating: 1636.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1678.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.4
Clay: 14.6
Grass: 5.8
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 84.5

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (1-2) clay Hamburg 166 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) clay Hamburg 133 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Justin Engel (2-1) clay Hamburg 141 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Dino Prizmic (0-2) clay Rome 80 min

Quentin Halys
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
0
Quentin Halys
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, round of 64 in Paris on clay — a classic testing ground for movement and retrieval. The model favors Ugo Humbert to progress, giving him a 55.77% chance of victory over Quentin Halys (44.23%), with a predicted total of about 40.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Humbert arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 34) with an Elo of 1702.9, a stronger form index (52.11) and a slightly better surface strength (17.61) than Halys (rank 88, Elo 1636.2, form 41.94, surface 14.60). Both men show very similar serve profiles — their mean serve indexes are nearly identical — but Humbert’s mean return index (91.19) edges Halys’ (84.54) by more than five points, suggesting Humbert will be better equipped to capitalise on second-serve opportunities and longer rallies on clay. Fatigue is level between them in this tournament (174 minutes each), so conditioning from earlier rounds should not be a differentiator. Recent form tells a consistent story: Humbert is 2-1 over his last three matches, highlighted by a comprehensive 3-0 win over Adrian Mannarino at Roland Garros and a tight win over Karen Khachanov in Hamburg, with a lone loss to Ignacio Buse. Halys also comes in 1-2 across his last three, beating Mattia Bellucci in Paris but posting two narrow losses in Madrid and Barcelona. That pattern underlines Humbert’s higher upside on clay and greater consistency in closing matches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.5 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ugo Humbert - Quentin Halys) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Ugo Humbert wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: the predicted aces total sits at 19.28, reflecting slower court conditions that suppress free points. The predicted aces are not concentrated in one player since their serve ratings are comparable, so expect holds to come from placement and rally construction rather than sheer pace. The double faults prediction is 8.52; with clay’s long rallies and physical toll, the expected double faults could rise as the match wears on.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.3 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.5 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

56.6% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ugo Humbert's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (20.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Humbert’s edge comes from superior return numbers, higher ranking and a better recent win record, all of which are amplified on clay where breaking serve is more decisive. The key factor to watch will be Humbert’s ability to convert return chances early in sets — if he does, he should tilt this tight encounter in his favour.

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