Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar Prediction

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #41
41%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #13
59%
Expected Total Games: 25.9
Predicted Winner: Rafael Jodar

Why the Model Favors Rafael Jodar

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +3.5 Rafael Jodar
Serve & return game +3.2 Botic van de Zandschulp
Recent record by level +3.2 Rafael Jodar
Surface fit +2.9 Rafael Jodar
Overall record & opposition quality +1.9 Rafael Jodar

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Rafael Jodar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current #41 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #54 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #52 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #75 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #84 2025-09-29

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #13 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #26 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #57 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #165 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #309 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 70.1
ELO Rating: 1888.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1788.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 301.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.3
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 90.5

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 50.2
ELO Rating: 1877.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1926.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 284.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.5
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Botic van de Zandschulp
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Shanghai 99 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Shanghai 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Merida (2-1) hard Shanghai 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (1-2) hard Beijing 167 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jie Cui (2-0) hard Beijing 89 min

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Botic van de Zandschulp
vs
0
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rafael Jodar is favored in the Shanghai Round of 16, with a 59% win probability to Botic van de Zandschulp’s 41%. The forecast points to a competitive match, projecting 25.9 total games.

Match Analysis

Jodar’s No. 13 ranking, compared with van de Zandschulp’s No. 41, supports the edge in broader record and opposition quality. Jodar also beat Jiri Lehecka in his previous round, while van de Zandschulp has put together three wins in Shanghai, including straight-set victories over Alex Michelsen and Arthur Fils. The model also favors Jodar on hard-court fit, though van de Zandschulp’s three straight wins on this surface make that part of the forecast less clear from their recent results. Van de Zandschulp has the stronger serve-and-return profile, giving him a credible way to counter Jodar’s higher ranking and broader-record advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.9 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Botic van de Zandschulp - Rafael Jodar) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Rafael Jodar wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Van de Zandschulp is projected for 6.1 aces and 3.3 double faults, while Jodar is at 4.3 aces and 2.1 double faults. Van de Zandschulp’s stronger serving profile fits his higher ace estimate, though it also comes with a higher projected double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.2 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Botic van de Zandschulp 6.1 + Rafael Jodar 4.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Botic van de Zandschulp 3.2 + Rafael Jodar 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Botic van de Zandschulp

Expected 6.1 aces

Rafael Jodar

Expected 4.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Botic van de Zandschulp

Expected 3.2 double faults

Rafael Jodar

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Botic van de Zandschulp's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Van de Zandschulp’s serve-and-return advantage gives him the strongest path to overturning the pick. If he can make that count against Jodar’s stronger broader record, the close forecast could swing.

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