Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #55
58%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #64
42%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Rafael Jodar

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Ranking Trends

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #55 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #150 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #283 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #64 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #47 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #50 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #59 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 88.1
ELO Rating: 1784.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1849.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.5
Clay: 41.6
Grass: 39.7
Serve Rating: 61.3
Return Rating: 59.2

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 65.1
ELO Rating: 1615.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1654.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 73.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.8
Clay: 41.5
Grass: 39.7
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-0) clay Barcelona 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marco Trungelliti (2-0) clay Marrakech 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) clay Marrakech 63 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (2-0) clay Marrakech 38 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (2-1) clay Marrakech 120 min

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Rafael Jodar
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 16 in Barcelona on clay sees Rafael Jodar face Camilo Ugo Carabelli in a 500-level event in Spain. The model favors Rafael Jodar (58.27%) over Camilo Ugo Carabelli (41.73%), with a predicted total of 23.0 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Jodar arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 55 vs No. 64) with a stronger form index (88.13 to 65.09) and the higher Elo (1784.76 vs 1615.16). Both players show nearly identical surface strength indices (Jodar 41.65, Carabelli 41.49), suggesting neither holds a clear clay-court stylistic edge. Fatigue levels are comparable: Jodar 70 minutes on court in the event, Carabelli 73. Notably, Carabelli’s mean serve index (98.08) is substantially higher than Jodar’s (61.27) — a gap well over 5 points — and his mean return index (91.74) also outstrips Jodar’s (59.19) by a wide margin; both differences are significant and will shape dynamics on serve and in return games. Recent form diverges: Jodar is unbeaten in his last three matches, including straight-set wins in Marrakech and a confident 2-0 victory over Jaume Munar in Barcelona. Carabelli is 2-1 in his last three, rebounding from the loss to Jodar in Marrakech to beat Karen Khachanov in Barcelona; his long 140-minute match versus Luca Van Assche shows resilience but may contribute to accumulated wear.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 13.59 total aces for the match and a double faults prediction around 6.08. On slow, high-bounce clay, expected aces tend to be lower and expected double faults higher due to longer rallies and more pressure on service games. Given Carabelli’s markedly higher serve rating, he likely accounts for a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, while both players could contribute to the projected expected double faults as fatigue accumulates.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.6 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jodar’s combination of superior Elo and current form gives him the edge in a tight matchup, despite Carabelli’s thunderous serve and strong return metrics. The key factor to watch is whether Jodar can neutralize Carabelli’s serve early; success on return games will likely decide the outcome.

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