Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Collignon comes mainly from his recent record by level and a further boost from recent-form weighting — together these are the largest contributors to the probability gap. That aligns with Collignon’s higher rank (42) and stronger Elo (1668.13) compared with Skatov (rank 172, Elo 1574.30), which signal greater overall strength at higher-tier events. The explainability output also credits Collignon on recent form and overall strength, despite Collignon’s raw form index (38.32) being lower than Skatov’s (51.29); the model appears to favor the quality of Collignon’s opposition and place of results when computing those components. Looking at match-level traits, Collignon comes in with zero tournament fatigue versus Skatov’s 140 minutes on court, and a slightly better surface strength index on clay (17.28 vs 12.64). Serve/return profiles are close: Collignon’s mean serve index is 96.36 against Skatov’s 94.88, and mean return index 92.16 vs 87.83 — differences under the 5-point threshold. Recent form on court differs in texture: Collignon has dropped his last three matches (all on grass, against Fils, Cerundolo and Zverev), while Skatov arrives in Gstaad with two straight wins on clay (straight sets over Sachko and Chandrasekar) after a grass loss at Wimbledon.