Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Vacherot comes mainly from recent record at similar levels and better surface fit. Recent-record-by-level contributes +7.1 points to Vacherot: he arrives having won on clay in both Roland Garros and Gstaad rounds, while his overall clay match experience this season looks deeper. Surface-fit adds another +4.4 toward Vacherot and that is reflected in the surface strength indices — Vacherot 32.71 versus Collignon 19.34 — indicating Vacherot is more comfortable on clay. Overall strength (+1.6) also leans to Vacherot: he’s ranked 21 with a 1808.8 Elo, compared with Collignon at 42 and a 1696.0 Elo. That said, Collignon has pushed back in-form signals that account for a +3.2 tilt in his favor: his recent tournament form in Gstaad is strong, with straight-sets win over Lorenzo Sonego and a three-set victory over Timofey Skatov before reaching this round. Fatigue is a clear contrast — Collignon has logged 286 minutes in this event versus Vacherot’s 129 — which may blunt Collignon’s mid-match legs. Serve numbers are effectively even (mean serve indices 96.45 vs 96.66), so no large serving advantage is expected, but Collignon holds a slightly better mean return (92.15 vs 87.11), a difference just over 5 points that could be decisive in the crucible of clay breaks. Recent three-match form: Collignon 2–1 (two Gstaad wins, prior loss on grass), Vacherot 2–1 (Gstaad and Roland Garros wins, one clay loss in Madrid).