Miami
FL, U.S.A.
Hard
Masters 1000
Round of 64
Rei Sakamoto vs Daniil Medvedev: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults
Rei Sakamoto
Rank: #164
13%
VS
Daniil Medvedev
Rank: #10
87%
Expected Total Games:
22.6
Predicted Winner:
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking Trends
Rei Sakamoto
- Current Rank: #164 (2026-03-16)
- 3 Months Ago: #185 (2025-12-15)
- 6 Months Ago: #189 (2025-09-15)
- 9 Months Ago: #294 (2025-06-16)
- 12 Months Ago: #330 (2025-03-17)
Daniil Medvedev
- Current Rank: #10 (2026-03-16)
- 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-12-15)
- 6 Months Ago: #18 (2025-09-15)
- 9 Months Ago: #11 (2025-06-16)
- 12 Months Ago: #8 (2025-03-17)
Player Metrics
Rei Sakamoto
Form Index:
47.5
ELO Rating:
431.8
Glicko2 Rating:
1520.6
Current Fatigue (minutes):
179.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
3.8
Clay:
2.6
Grass:
2.4
Serve Rating:
76.2
Return Rating:
47.9
Daniil Medvedev
Form Index:
65.9
ELO Rating:
2656.0
Glicko2 Rating:
2005.2
Current Fatigue (minutes):
0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
17.6
Clay:
21.6
Grass:
21.7
Serve Rating:
97.8
Return Rating:
89.8
Recent Matches
Rei Sakamoto
- Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-1) hard Miami 179 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Vit Kopriva (0-2) hard Indian Wells 104 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Giulio Zeppieri (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Colton Smith (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
Daniil Medvedev
- Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Indian Wells 115 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (2-0) hard Indian Wells 97 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (2-0) hard Indian Wells 75 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Indian Wells 87 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Indian Wells 78 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Rei Sakamoto
vs
0
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
At Miami (hard, Masters 1000) in the Round of 64, top-10 veteran Daniil Medvedev meets rising 164-ranked Rei Sakamoto. The projection strongly favors Medvedev (86.74%) over Sakamoto (13.26%), with a relatively short match expected — about 22.61 total games.
Match Analysis
Medvedev arrives with a far superior Elo (2656 vs 432) and a much stronger form index (65.9 vs 47.5). His surface strength index (17.6) is higher than Sakamoto’s (3.8), and Medvedev is fresher—no minutes logged in this event—whereas Sakamoto carries 179 minutes of fatigue from a long opener. Those gaps underline the experience and consistency differential on hard courts.
Serving and returning profiles tilt heavily toward Medvedev. His mean serve index (97.84) eclipses Sakamoto’s (76.19) by over 20 points, and his mean return index (89.79) is about 42 points higher than Sakamoto’s (47.94). Both differences are meaningful and likely decisive: Medvedev should dominate baseline exchanges and apply constant pressure on Sakamoto’s service games. Over their last three matches, Sakamoto has shown flashes—two wins including a gritty Miami opener and a fourth-round Australian Open victory—mixed with a recent Indian Wells loss. Medvedev’s recent results include two straight wins (Alcaraz and Draper at Indian Wells) before a loss to Sinner, indicating high-level wins and one recent lapse.
Total Games Predictions
Expected Total Games in Match
22.6
Most likely outcome: 22 games
Total Games Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total games outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total games ≤ X
Aces and Double Faults Predictions
The aces prediction for this hard-court clash is elevated: the match is expected to produce about 23.35 predicted aces, and the expected double faults are 6.58. Hard courts typically yield a moderate-to-high ace count; with Medvedev’s significantly higher serve rating, much of the predicted aces will come from him, while Sakamoto’s lower serve index suggests fewer aces and a modest contribution to the expected double faults.
Expected Total Aces
23.4
Most likely: 24 aces
Expected Total Double Faults
6.6
Most likely: 6 double faults
Aces Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each ace count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of aces ≤ X
Double Faults Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each double fault count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of double faults ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Final Prediction
Medvedev’s clear edge in serve, return and match freshness drives the projection in his favor. Watch how quickly Medvedev can convert return pressure into breaks—if Sakamoto can hold early games, the match length could stretch, but the balance of indicators points to a straight-sets victory for Medvedev.
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