Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Adrian Mannarino vs Rinky Hijikata: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #68
37%
VS

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #111
63%
Expected Total Games: 37.4
Predicted Winner: Rinky Hijikata

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Player Metrics

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 8.2
ELO Rating: 777.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1567.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 4.7
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 66.9
Return Rating: 72.3

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 42.2
ELO Rating: 605.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1573.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.0
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 11.2
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 94.9

Recent Matches

Adrian Mannarino

Rinky Hijikata

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adrian Mannarino
vs
1
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Adrian Mannarino and Rinky Hijikata at the Australian Open marks an exciting encounter in the Round of 128 on hard court. With Rinky Hijikata favored to win, the probability of victory stands at 63.20%, while Adrian Mannarino has a 36.80% chance. Fans can expect a competitive match, with an estimated total of 37.42 games to be played.

Match Analysis

Adrian Mannarino, currently ranked 68, has a form index of 8.22 and an Elo rating of 777.79. His surface strength index of 6.92 suggests he has struggled to adapt to hard courts recently. In contrast, Rinky Hijikata, ranked 111, boasts a higher form index of 42.17 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 605.72. Notably, Hijikata's surface strength index of 14.96 and mean serve index of 97.66 demonstrate his proficiency on hard courts, with a difference of over 5 points in serve index compared to Mannarino. Additionally, Hijikata's mean return index of 94.88 is stronger than Mannarino's 72.26, indicating a solid baseline game that could pressure Mannarino's serve throughout the match. In their recent performances, Mannarino has struggled, losing his last three matches, all in straight sets. His last match against Eliot Spizzirri in Auckland lasted 80 minutes, culminating in a disappointing outing where he won no sets. On the other hand, Hijikata has had mixed results, winning one of his last three matches. His most recent match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was a close encounter that he lost, but he did win against Tristan Schoolkate, showcasing his ability to compete at a higher level on hard courts.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.4 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Adrian Mannarino versus Rinky Hijikata. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Adrian Mannarino versus Rinky Hijikata. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Adrian Mannarino - Rinky Hijikata) -0.7 Most likely spread: -1 (Rinky Hijikata wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Adrian Mannarino versus Rinky Hijikata. Positive values indicate Adrian Mannarino winning more games, negative values indicate Rinky Hijikata winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Adrian Mannarino versus Rinky Hijikata. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match is 17.79, reflecting the hard court's balance between powerful serving and strong returning. With Hijikata's superior serve index, he is likely to dominate the ace count. The expected double faults prediction stands at 4.57, which is relatively moderate, but both players will need to manage their service games effectively on this medium-paced surface to avoid unnecessary errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.8 Most likely: 17 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Adrian Mannarino versus Rinky Hijikata. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Adrian Mannarino versus Rinky Hijikata. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Adrian Mannarino versus Rinky Hijikata. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Adrian Mannarino versus Rinky Hijikata. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Rinky Hijikata holds the edge in this matchup due to his stronger serve and return statistics, coupled with a better recent form compared to Mannarino. A key factor to monitor will be Hijikata's ability to capitalize on his serve, as this could significantly influence the match's dynamics and his chances of advancing.

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