Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #22
57%
VS

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #93
43%
Expected Total Games: 26.1
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Why the Model Favors Luciano Darderi

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +3.8 Luciano Darderi
Surface fit +3.4 Luciano Darderi
Serve & return game +2.6 Luciano Darderi
Recent record by level +1.9 Luciano Darderi
Head-to-head +1.4 Luciano Darderi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 57% for Luciano Darderi. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #22 2026-08-03
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #22 2026-02-09
  • 9 mo ago #26 2025-11-10
  • 12 mo ago #34 2025-08-18

Rinky Hijikata

  • Current #93 2026-08-03
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #113 2026-02-09
  • 9 mo ago #127 2025-11-10
  • 12 mo ago #96 2025-08-18

Player Metrics

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 48.8
ELO Rating: 1761.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1801.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.4
Clay: 32.5
Grass: 15.5
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 89.2

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 35.3
ELO Rating: 1611.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1681.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 151.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.2
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Luciano Darderi
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Rinky Hijikata
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (2-1) hard Cincinnati 151 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (0-2) hard Toronto 221 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (1-2) hard Los Cabos 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jesper de Jong (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) grass London 64 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Luciano Darderi
vs
1
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cincinnati, Ohio, round of 64 on hard courts at a masters 1000 event sets up Luciano Darderi versus Rinky Hijikata. The model favors Darderi to win, 56.90 percent to 43.10 percent for Hijikata, with a predicted total of about 26.1 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Darderi comes mainly from overall strength (+3.8 percentage points) and surface fit (+3.4 percentage points), with additional support from serve and return metrics (+2.6), recent results by level (+1.9) and head to head (+1.4). Darderi sits 22 in the rankings with a higher Elo (1761.35) and a stronger form index (48.78) than Hijikata, who is ranked 93 with an Elo of 1611.83 and a form index of 35.28. Surface strength indexes are similar, 24.41 for Darderi and 26.19 for Hijikata, so neither player gains a large surface advantage on hard courts. Serve and return profiles are close. Mean serve index is 96.28 for Darderi and 95.18 for Hijikata, a small gap that should not dramatically shift serve dynamics. Mean return index is 89.22 for Darderi versus 87.07 for Hijikata, again a modest difference. Fatigue diverges sharply. Darderi arrives with zero minutes of cumulative court time at this event. Hijikata carries 151 minutes of fatigue from earlier matches, including a 151 minute win over Gael Monfils. Over their last three matches Darderi has two wins followed by a loss in Toronto, while Hijikata has one recent win in Cincinnati and two tough losses in prior events, including a 221 minute match in Toronto.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.1 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luciano Darderi - Rinky Hijikata) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard court encounter is moderate, with predicted aces totaling about 11.52 for the match. The double faults prediction is 6.16 expected double faults. Hard courts typically produce a medium number of aces compared with grass or clay, so the predicted aces reflect the surface. Since neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, that keeps the predicted aces and expected double faults in line with a balanced hard court match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.5 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luciano Darderi's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (34.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s edge comes primarily from overall strength and a slightly better fit to the surface, plus fresher legs entering the match. The key factor to watch will be Hijikata’s physical state late in rallies and on return games, given his accumulated fatigue.

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