Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Cameron Norrie: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #89
25%
VS

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #26
75%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

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Ranking Trends

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current #89 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #91 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #53 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #56 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-02-10

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #26 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #27 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #39 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #91 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #61 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 25.1
ELO Rating: 590.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.0
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 7.0
Serve Rating: 73.5
Return Rating: 39.6

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 45.4
ELO Rating: 1406.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1619.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.2
Clay: 13.7
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 92.5

Recent Matches

Roberto Bautista Agut
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Cameron Norrie
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Roberto Bautista Agut
vs
1
Cameron Norrie
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Rotterdam, Netherlands — round of 32 on indoor hard courts at an ATP 500 event. The model favors Cameron Norrie to advance, with a 74.59% probability versus Roberto Bautista Agut’s 25.41%. The contest is expected to be relatively short for a best-of-three, with a projected total of about 23.74 games.

Match Analysis

Rank and ratings show a clear gap: Norrie sits at No. 26 with an Elo of 1406.52, while Bautista Agut is No. 89 with an Elo of 590.39. Form indices also favor Norrie (45.37) over Bautista Agut (25.12). Both arrive fresh to Rotterdam with zero accumulated fatigue minutes in this event. Surface strength indexes indicate Norrie (11.17) has a notably stronger profile on hard courts than Bautista Agut (3.99). Serve and return profiles are markedly different. Norrie’s mean serve index (97.62) substantially outpaces Bautista Agut’s (73.49) by over 24 points, and his mean return index (92.49) eclipses Bautista Agut’s (39.65) by roughly 53 points — differences large enough to expect a pronounced influence on hold/break dynamics. Recent form: Bautista Agut went 1–2 in his last three matches (win over Christopher O’Connell, losses to Martin Damm and Juncheng Shang) with mixed durations and a long three-set win in Montpellier. Norrie is 2–1 in his last three (wins vs. Emilio Nava and Benjamin Bonzi, loss to Alexander Zverev) and has shown competitive matches on hard courts at the Australian Open.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roberto Bautista Agut - Cameron Norrie) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Roberto Bautista Agut wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 15.91 total, and the expected double faults are 5.94. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate — the surface supports both servers and returners. Given Norrie’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to produce a larger share of the predicted aces, while Bautista Agut may contribute fewer aces and be slightly more vulnerable on return games. The double faults prediction suggests only a small number of loose serves overall.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Norrie’s superior Elo, higher form index, and large advantages in both serve and return indices give him the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Bautista Agut can neutralize Norrie’s serve and create early break chances; if he cannot, the match is likely to stay short and favor Norrie.

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