Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Christopher O'Connell: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #91
43%
VS

Christopher O'Connell

Rank: #118
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Christopher O'Connell

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Ranking Trends

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current #91 2026-01-19
  • 3 mo ago #94 2025-11-03
  • 6 mo ago #53 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #56 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-02-03

Christopher O'Connell

  • Current #118 2026-01-19
  • 3 mo ago #107 2025-11-03
  • 6 mo ago #77 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #81 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #79 2025-02-03

Player Metrics

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 14.1
ELO Rating: 605.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.9
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 7.0
Serve Rating: 73.5
Return Rating: 64.0

Christopher O'Connell

Form Index: 10.0
ELO Rating: 480.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1570.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 4.7
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 94.0

Recent Matches

Roberto Bautista Agut
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Christopher O'Connell
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Roberto Bautista Agut
vs
0
Christopher O'Connell
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Roberto Bautista Agut and Christopher O'Connell at the ATP 250 tournament in Montpellier, France, marks a crucial round of 32 encounter on hard court. The predicted winner is Christopher O'Connell, with a probability of 57.16% compared to Bautista Agut's 42.84%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 22.97.

Match Analysis

Roberto Bautista Agut, currently ranked 91, has a form index of 14.09, indicating a challenging stretch recently. His Elo rating stands at 605.66, while his surface strength index is 3.89, suggesting he has been less effective on hard courts. Notably, Bautista Agut’s mean serve index of 73.48 is significantly lower than O'Connell's impressive 97.95, a difference of over 24 points. This gap indicates O'Connell's superior serving capabilities. Bautista Agut's mean return index is 63.95, whereas O'Connell's is 93.97, showing another substantial advantage for O'Connell of almost 30 points in return performance. In their recent performances, Bautista Agut has struggled, losing all of his last three matches, including a disappointing first-round exit at the Australian Open against Juncheng Shang. Conversely, O'Connell has displayed resilience despite mixed results, winning one out of three recent matches, including his last match against Nishesh Basavareddy at the Australian Open.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roberto Bautista Agut - Christopher O'Connell) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Christopher O'Connell wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.06 aces based on the players' serve strengths, while the predicted double faults stand at approximately 5.63. Given the medium-paced hard court surface, which balances the advantages for both servers and returners, the predicted aces might lean towards O'Connell due to his significantly higher mean serve index. Conversely, Bautista Agut's lower serve performance might contribute to a higher rate of double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Christopher O'Connell's edge is primarily due to his superior serve and return statistics, which are crucial on hard surfaces. Observers should pay close attention to O'Connell's ability to capitalize on his serve, as this could be a decisive factor in gaining an early advantage in the match.

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