Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Bautista Agut arrives ranked 93 with a form index of 43.04 and an Elo of 1518.77; his clay surface strength is 38.86 and reported fatigue is zero. Tirante is ranked 75, carries a higher form index of 51.98 and a notably stronger Elo at 1630.69; his surface strength is 39.44 with no tournament fatigue recorded. There is a substantial gap in serving and returning metrics: Tirante’s mean serve index (97.33) tops Bautista Agut’s (76.78) by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (89.74) exceeds Bautista Agut’s (71.63) by roughly 18 points. Those disparities point to an overall edge for Tirante in both service potency and baseline aggression. Looking at recent matches, Bautista Agut has gone 1–2 over his last three clay outings: a straight-sets loss to Berrettini, a two-set defeat to Shevchenko, and a win over Benjamin Bonzi. Tirante’s last three clay results show two wins (over Ben Shelton and Mackenzie McDonald) and a loss to Roman Burruchaga, indicating better momentum and more consistent form coming into Madrid. Match durations suggest Tirante has handled longer battles recently, while Bautista Agut’s recent heavy defeat to Shevchenko included a long match, potentially signaling questions about match rhythm.