Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Sebastian Baez vs David Goffin Prediction

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #45
50%
VS

David Goffin

Rank: #65
50%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: David Goffin

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #45 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #33 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #31 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #27 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #20 2024-08-12

David Goffin

  • Current #65 2025-07-28
  • 3 mo ago #48 2025-05-05
  • 6 mo ago #56 2025-02-03
  • 9 mo ago #52 2024-11-04
  • 12 mo ago #92 2024-08-12

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 17.0
ELO Rating: 1015.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1609.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 89.5

David Goffin

Form Index: 20.5
ELO Rating: 895.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1549.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 8.6
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

David Goffin
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
David Goffin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Sebastian Baez and David Goffin takes place in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 tournament on hard courts. This contest is expected to be closely contested, with Goffin slightly favored to win, holding a probability of 50.10% compared to Baez's 49.90%. The predicted total number of games played is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez enters this match ranked 45th with a form index of 16.99, which indicates a relatively stable but improving performance. His Elo rating stands at approximately 1015, and he boasts a surface strength index of 9.64, highlighting his adaptability to hard surfaces. Notably, Baez’s mean serve index is 96.54, which is slightly superior to Goffin's 95.44, although the difference is less than 5 points. His mean return index of 89.53 is marginally better than Goffin’s 89.31, suggesting he may have a slight edge in returning serves. On the other hand, David Goffin, ranked 65th, has a stronger form index of 20.46, signifying a more favorable recent performance trajectory. His Elo rating is lower at approximately 895, and he has a marginally higher surface strength index of 10.47, indicating his effectiveness on hard courts. Goffin's recent matches have seen him struggle, losing his last three encounters, including two on hard courts against Mackenzie McDonald and Yunchaokete Bu, both in straight sets.

Final Prediction

David Goffin's slight edge in form and surface strength may provide him with the advantage needed to secure a victory against Baez. A key factor to monitor during the match will be the effectiveness of Goffin's return game, as both players have shown vulnerabilities in their recent performances. This could be pivotal in deciding the outcome of the encounter.

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