Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Sebastian Baez vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Prediction

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #38
48%
VS

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Rank: #303
52%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #38 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #35 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #28 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #27 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #19 2024-07-15

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

  • Current #303 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #307 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #506 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #670 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #744 2024-07-15

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 3.0
ELO Rating: 1059.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1616.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 89.4

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Form Index: 54.7
ELO Rating: 218.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1656.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 406.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.6
Clay: 1.9
Grass: 1.2
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Bastad tournament in Sweden, Sebastian Baez faces off against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer on clay. The predicted winner is Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, with a probability of 52.25% to Baez's 47.75%. The predicted total number of games played in this matchup is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez, currently ranked 38, has a form index of 2.97 and an Elo rating of 1059.06. His fatigue level is at 0, indicating he has had a light tournament so far. Baez's surface strength index stands at 9.50, while his mean serve index is 96.49, showing strong serving capabilities. In comparison, Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, ranked 303, has a significantly higher form index of 54.72 and an Elo rating of 218.11, but carries a notable fatigue level of 406. Kjaer's surface strength index is considerably lower at 1.93, with a mean serve index of 94.49. Although Baez holds a slight edge in serving prowess, Kjaer's return index of 90.01 surpasses Baez's 89.38 by a narrow margin. Both players have had varying recent performances. Baez has struggled in his last three matches, losing all, including a tough battle against Jack Draper at Wimbledon. Meanwhile, Kjaer has shown resilience by winning his last three matches in Bastad, defeating Thiago Monteiro, Pablo Llamas Ruiz, and Thiago Seyboth Wild, showcasing his ability to handle pressure on clay.

Final Prediction

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer appears to have the upper hand due to his recent form and ability to secure victories in the current tournament. A key factor to watch during this match will be how well Baez can handle Kjaer's effective returns, which could be pivotal in determining the outcome.

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