Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Zhizhen Zhang vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #370
45%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #41
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

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Ranking Trends

Zhizhen Zhang

  • Current #370 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #122 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #53 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #45 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #41 2024-09-30

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #41 2025-09-22
  • 3 mo ago #38 2025-06-30
  • 6 mo ago #36 2025-03-31
  • 9 mo ago #27 2024-12-30
  • 12 mo ago #26 2024-09-30

Player Metrics

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 21.2
ELO Rating: 983.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1565.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 10.7
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 84.9

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 18.7
ELO Rating: 940.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 13.6
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Zhizhen Zhang
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Tokio 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lloyd Harris (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-1) hard Winston Salem 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Winston Salem 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Gabriel Diallo (0-2) hard Cincinnati 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zhizhen Zhang
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Zhizhen Zhang and Sebastian Baez takes place in the Round of 128 at the Shanghai Masters 1000 tournament on hard courts. The predicted winner is Sebastian Baez, with a win probability of 55.38%, while Zhizhen Zhang has a 44.62% chance of victory. The anticipated total number of games played is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Zhizhen Zhang, currently ranked 370, has a form index of 21.16 and an Elo rating of 983.28. His performance on hard courts is reflected in a surface strength index of 7.63. Zhang's mean serve index stands at 98.10, while his mean return index is 84.90. In contrast, Sebastian Baez is ranked 41 with a form index of 18.73 and a lower Elo rating of 940.67. Baez's surface strength index of 8.52 indicates a slight advantage on hard courts, and he also has a competitive mean serve index of 95.02 and a significantly higher mean return index of 89.82—showing a gap of over 5 points in this area. In their recent performances, both players have struggled, with Zhang losing his last two matches in straight sets without winning a set. Baez has also faced difficulties, losing his last three matches, including tough encounters against higher-ranked opponents like Carlos Alcaraz. These results may impact their confidence and momentum going into their match.

Final Prediction

Sebastian Baez holds the edge due to his superior ranking and slightly better performance metrics, particularly in return game effectiveness. A key factor to observe will be how each player handles pressure on their serve, as Baez's return capabilities may create opportunities to break Zhang's serve.

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