Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Sebastian Korda vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Korda

Rank: #53
37%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #30
63%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Korda

  • Current #53 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #48 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #45 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #23 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #23 2025-02-10

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #30 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #30 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #14 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Sebastian Korda

Form Index: 32.6
ELO Rating: 983.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1692.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 67.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 77.5
Return Rating: 31.8

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 56.3
ELO Rating: 1488.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1759.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 108.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 12.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 90.5

Recent Matches

Sebastian Korda
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-1) hard Dallas 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jason Kubler (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Brisbane 60 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Korda
vs
1
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Dallas, TX is a hard-court match at a 500-level event, pitting Sebastian Korda against Frances Tiafoe. The model projects Frances Tiafoe to win with a 63.34% probability to Korda’s 36.66%, and anticipates a relatively short match of about 23.71 total games.

Match Analysis

On paper Tiafoe holds clear advantages: he is ranked 30 to Korda’s 53, carries a higher form index (56.32 vs 32.58) and a substantially superior Elo (1,488.07 vs 982.96). Tiafoe’s surface strength index (10.30) also edges Korda’s (7.45). Fatigue is a factor for both — Korda has logged 67 minutes in this event while Tiafoe has 108 — which may influence late-match intensity on a medium-paced hard court. Serve and return profiles accentuate the gap. Tiafoe’s mean serve index (96.69) is far above Korda’s (77.55), a difference well over 5 points and likely to translate into more free points on serve. The mean return index gap is even wider (Tiafoe 90.46 vs Korda 31.80), indicating Tiafoe is both a more dangerous server and returner on this surface. Over their last three matches Korda has one recent win in Dallas but suffered defeats in Adelaide and a five-set loss at the Australian Open; his recent form has been inconsistent. Tiafoe has two wins among his last three, including a recovery win in Dallas after a tough loss to Alex de Minaur, showing stronger recent momentum.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sebastian Korda - Frances Tiafoe) +0.6 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction suggests about 21.23 total aces in the match, and the predicted aces lean toward Tiafoe given his much higher serve index. The expected double faults for the match are 4.86, a modest figure consistent with hard courts offering a balanced serving environment. Given Tiafoe’s superior serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces while keeping double faults near the projected total.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s edge comes from superior serve and return metrics, higher Elo and better form, despite heavier minutes on court this week. The key factor to watch is Tiafoe’s ability to convert free points on serve and pressure Korda’s weaker return game early in sets.

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