Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Shintaro Mochizuki

Rank: #110
33%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #34
67%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

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Ranking Trends

Shintaro Mochizuki

  • Current #110 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #93 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #123 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #146 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #169 2025-01-13

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #34 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #25 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #18 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #12 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Shintaro Mochizuki

Form Index: 35.3
ELO Rating: 537.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.0
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 26.3
Return Rating: 86.0

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 0.0
ELO Rating: 1317.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1814.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.2
Clay: 10.9
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 92.4

Recent Matches

Shintaro Mochizuki
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Shintaro Mochizuki
vs
0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open 2026, Shintaro Mochizuki faces off against Stefanos Tsitsipas on hard courts in Australia. With Tsitsipas holding a significant edge, he is predicted to win with a probability of 66.72%, while Mochizuki has a 33.28% chance of victory. The match is expected to feature around 38 games in total.

Match Analysis

Shintaro Mochizuki, currently ranked 110, has a form index of 35.34 and an Elo rating of 537.62. His surface strength index sits at 3.04, suggesting he has room to improve on hard courts. Meanwhile, Stefanos Tsitsipas, ranked 34, boasts a much higher Elo rating of 1317.84 and a surface strength index of 10.20, indicating his proficiency on hard surfaces. The disparity in their mean serve index is notable, with Tsitsipas at 97.87 compared to Mochizuki’s 26.31, highlighting Tsitsipas's powerful serving ability. Additionally, both players have a mean return index above 86; however, Tsitsipas also surpasses Mochizuki’s return index of 86.03 with a score of 92.40. In their recent performances, Mochizuki has struggled, winning only one match out of his last three contests, which included a loss in his last outing. Tsitsipas, too, has faced challenges, losing his last three matches. However, his recent performances against tougher opponents may give him an edge in this matchup, despite the recent results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.0 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Shintaro Mochizuki - Stefanos Tsitsipas) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see approximately 21.61 aces, with Tsitsipas likely contributing a significant portion given his superior serve index. In contrast, the anticipated double faults prediction stands at around 4.86, which reflects a typical performance on hard courts where players often balance power with precision. Given Tsitsipas's exceptional mean serve index, he is expected to dominate the ace count, potentially minimizing the impact of double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.6 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tsitsipas's combination of higher ranking, superior serve, and overall experience on hard courts positions him as the clear favorite in this encounter. A key factor to monitor will be Mochizuki's ability to return Tsitsipas's powerful serves and whether he can capitalize on any opportunities to break serve during the match.

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