Hangzhou China Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Gaston Prediction

Sho Shimabukuro

Rank: #93
52%
VS

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #97
48%
Expected Total Games: 24.5
Predicted Winner: Sho Shimabukuro

Why the Model Favors Sho Shimabukuro

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.4 Sho Shimabukuro
Recent form +7.0 Hugo Gaston
Surface fit +4.8 Sho Shimabukuro
Overall strength +1.6 Hugo Gaston
Age +1.6 Hugo Gaston

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Sho Shimabukuro. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Sho Shimabukuro

  • Current #93 2026-09-21
  • 3 mo ago #89 2026-06-22
  • 6 mo ago #110 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #147 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #273 2025-09-22

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #97 2026-09-21
  • 3 mo ago #117 2026-06-15
  • 6 mo ago #107 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #97 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #105 2025-09-22

Player Metrics

Sho Shimabukuro

Form Index: 29.7
ELO Rating: 1484.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1606.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 12.9
Grass: 10.2
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 89.5

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 44.2
ELO Rating: 1621.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1586.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 93.4
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Sho Shimabukuro
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (0-2) hard Winston Salem 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Hubert Hurkacz (0-2) hard Cincinnati 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs J.j Wolf (1-2) hard Cincinnati 132 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) hard Cincinnati 59 min

Hugo Gaston
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Andre Ilagan (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Guido Ivan Justo (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (1-2) hard Cincinnati 132 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sho Shimabukuro
vs
0
Hugo Gaston
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Sho Shimabukuro is a narrow pick, taking 52% to Hugo Gaston’s 48%, with 24.5 games expected. The Round of 32 match in Hangzhou looks finely balanced.

Match Analysis

Shimabukuro’s results against players at this level and his hard-court fit are the main reasons for the slight lean his way. The ranking gap is small, with Shimabukuro at 93 and Gaston at 97. Gaston has the stronger recent form: he won two matches at the US Open before losing to Daniil Medvedev. He also has the stronger overall profile, so the forecast does not give Shimabukuro much room for error.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.5 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sho Shimabukuro - Hugo Gaston) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Shimabukuro is projected for 5.6 aces and Gaston for 3.6, a small advantage that fits Shimabukuro’s stronger serve profile. The expected double faults are 3.5 for Shimabukuro and 3.0 for Gaston.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.2 Most likely: 7 aces Per player: Sho Shimabukuro 5.6 + Hugo Gaston 3.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Sho Shimabukuro 3.5 + Hugo Gaston 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Sho Shimabukuro

Expected 5.6 aces

Hugo Gaston

Expected 3.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Sho Shimabukuro

Expected 3.5 double faults

Hugo Gaston

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Sho Shimabukuro's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (28.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Gaston’s recent hard-court wins are the clearest threat to the narrow forecast. If he carries that form into this match, his stronger overall profile could outweigh Shimabukuro’s edge in the factors favoring him.

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