Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Sho Shimabukuro vs Roman Safiullin Prediction

Sho Shimabukuro

Rank: #109
26%
VS

Roman Safiullin

Rank: #70
74%
Expected Total Games: 26.2
Predicted Winner: Roman Safiullin

Why the Model Favors Roman Safiullin

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.2 Roman Safiullin
Recent form +4.7 Roman Safiullin
Overall strength +4.5 Roman Safiullin
Surface fit +4.2 Roman Safiullin
Recent record by level +2.2 Roman Safiullin

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Roman Safiullin. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Sho Shimabukuro

  • Current #109 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #97 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #108 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #144 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #195 2025-10-20

Roman Safiullin

  • Current #70 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #94 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #176 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #172 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #131 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Sho Shimabukuro

Form Index: 20.6
ELO Rating: 1440.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1568.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.2
Clay: 12.9
Grass: 10.2
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.0

Roman Safiullin

Form Index: 59.7
ELO Rating: 1810.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1824.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 186.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.7
Clay: 17.2
Grass: 23.5
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Sho Shimabukuro
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Roman Safiullin
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ilia Simakin (2-0) hard Almaty 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ilya Ivashka (2-1) hard Almaty 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) hard Shanghai 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) hard Shanghai 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (2-0) hard Shanghai 76 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sho Shimabukuro
vs
0
Roman Safiullin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roman Safiullin is the clear favourite, with a 74% win probability compared with Sho Shimabukuro’s 26%. The match is projected to feature 26.2 total games.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is overall strength. Safiullin is ranked 70th, 39 places ahead of Shimabukuro, and his recent form is stronger: Shimabukuro has lost his last three matches, while Safiullin has won his two most recent matches in Almaty. Safiullin is also favoured in the serve-and-return exchanges, which could help him control important points, though neither player is an obvious serving mismatch. His stronger hard-court record adds to the case for him, but he has spent 186 minutes on court in Almaty, compared with none for Shimabukuro, a potential factor if the match extends.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.2 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sho Shimabukuro - Roman Safiullin) -2.4 Most likely spread: -3 (Roman Safiullin wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Safiullin is projected to hit 8.2 aces and 2.5 double faults, while Shimabukuro is projected for 6.5 aces and 3.3 double faults. The hard court’s consistent bounce offers both a steady serving platform, with Safiullin forecast to find more aces and Shimabukuro to make more double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.3 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Sho Shimabukuro 6.5 + Roman Safiullin 8.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Sho Shimabukuro 3.3 + Roman Safiullin 2.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Sho Shimabukuro

Expected 6.5 aces

Roman Safiullin

Expected 8.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Sho Shimabukuro

Expected 3.3 double faults

Roman Safiullin

Expected 2.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Sho Shimabukuro's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (42.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shimabukuro’s serve gives him his best chance of an upset: if it keeps Safiullin from gaining control in the return game, the favourite’s advantage could narrow.

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