Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Arthur Gea vs Stan Wawrinka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Gea

Rank: #197
52%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #139
48%
Expected Total Games: 37.2
Predicted Winner: Arthur Gea

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Player Metrics

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 472.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1528.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.0
Clay: 1.4
Grass: 1.1
Serve Rating: 29.5
Return Rating: 49.7

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 54.8
ELO Rating: 449.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 3.4
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Arthur Gea

Stan Wawrinka

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Gea
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Arthur Gea and Stan Wawrinka in the Round of 64 at the Australian Open promises to be a thrilling contest on hard courts. With the match taking place in Australia, both players will look to capitalize on the opportunity to advance in this prestigious Grand Slam tournament. The predicted winner is Arthur Gea, with a probability of winning at 51.70%, while Wawrinka has a 48.30% chance. The expected total number of games in this match is 37.19.

Match Analysis

Arthur Gea currently holds a ranking of 197, while Stan Wawrinka is ranked higher at 139. Gea has shown impressive form with a form index of 100.0, indicating peak performance, contrasted by Wawrinka's form index of 54.81. In terms of Elo ratings, Gea stands at 472.66, slightly above Wawrinka's 449.72, showcasing a close competition. Fatigue levels differ significantly, with Gea exhibiting 696.0 minutes on court compared to Wawrinka's 174.0 minutes, which may impact their stamina during the match. The surface strength index reveals Gea with a score of 1.97, while Wawrinka boasts a higher index of 4.82, indicating Wawrinka's stronger adaptation to hard courts. Notably, Wawrinka's mean serve index of 97.04 is significantly higher than Gea's 29.48, a difference that may influence the dynamics of serve effectiveness. In their recent performances, Gea has demonstrated remarkable consistency by winning all of his last three matches at the Australian Open without dropping a set, showcasing his current form and confidence on court. In contrast, Wawrinka has a mixed record, winning two out of his last three matches, including a recent four-set victory, but also suffered a defeat against Casper Ruud in Basel. This inconsistency could play a crucial role as they face off.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.2 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Arthur Gea versus Stan Wawrinka. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Arthur Gea versus Stan Wawrinka. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Gea - Stan Wawrinka) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Stan Wawrinka wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Arthur Gea versus Stan Wawrinka. Positive values indicate Arthur Gea winning more games, negative values indicate Stan Wawrinka winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Arthur Gea versus Stan Wawrinka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature approximately 24.44 aces and 6.58 double faults. Given the medium-paced hard court surface, which generally provides balanced conditions for both serve and return, the predicted aces may lean towards Wawrinka due to his significant advantage in the mean serve index. This disparity suggests that Wawrinka could capitalize on his serving prowess, leading to a higher ace count, while the expected double faults prediction indicates both players may struggle with accuracy under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 24.4 Most likely: 24 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Arthur Gea versus Stan Wawrinka. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Arthur Gea versus Stan Wawrinka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Arthur Gea versus Stan Wawrinka. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Arthur Gea versus Stan Wawrinka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Arthur Gea's edge comes from his recent form and momentum, having not lost a set in his last three matches. However, Wawrinka's superior serving capabilities and experience in Grand Slams could lead to pivotal moments in the match. A key factor to watch will be how Gea manages to handle Wawrinka's powerful serves, particularly in crucial points.

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