Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fery: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #51
62%
VS

Arthur Fery

Rank: #174
38%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #51 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #34 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #27 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #10 2025-03-17

Arthur Fery

  • Current #174 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #191 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #226 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #481 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #407 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 25.8
ELO Rating: 1366.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1796.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.4
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 77.0
Return Rating: 36.6

Arthur Fery

Form Index: 73.4
ELO Rating: 538.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1527.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 288.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 2.8
Grass: 3.7
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Arthur Fery
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
0
Arthur Fery
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This first-round match in Miami (hard courts, Masters 1000, Round of 128) pits former top-10 talent Stefanos Tsitsipas against Arthur Fery. The model projects Tsitsipas to win with a 61.61% probability to Fery's 38.39%, and forecasts a relatively short encounter of about 23.38 total games.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is mixed. Tsitsipas (rank 51) brings a much higher Elo (1366.44) and a higher surface strength index (8.36 vs 5.12), while Fery (rank 174) arrives with an eye-catching form index (73.42 versus Tsitsipas’s 25.85). Fatigue is a clear differentiator: Tsitsipas shows 0 minutes on court in this event, whereas Fery carries 288 minutes from two marathon Miami matches. That freshness favors Tsitsipas in a best-of-three, early-round setting. The serving and returning profiles diverge sharply. Fery’s mean serve index (95.70) is substantially higher than Tsitsipas’s (76.97), and his mean return index (90.01) likewise far outstrips Tsitsipas’s (36.60) — both differences exceed 5 points and are notable given the data. Recent form is also contrasting: Tsitsipas has suffered three straight hard-court defeats (Doha, Dubai, Indian Wells) while Fery has two back-to-back wins in Miami after a heavy loss at the Australian Open. Those Miami wins came over long matches (130 and 158 minutes), explaining his accumulated fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - Arthur Fery) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 8.89 for the match, with an expected double faults total of 6.37. On hard courts, which offer a medium pace and consistent bounce, those predicted aces are reasonable; the predicted aces number is likely to be skewed toward Fery given his significantly higher serve rating. The double faults prediction reflects the pressure of extended service games and fatigue—so the expected double faults number bears watching.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tsitsipas’s combination of higher Elo, superior ranking and fresher legs gives him the edge despite Fery’s impressive serve and return indices and recent match wins. The match’s decisive element will be whether Fery’s big-serve/return profile can overcome accumulated fatigue and Tsitsipas’s overall quality early in the meeting.

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