Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #11
64%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #32
36%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #11 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #13 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #11 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2025-02-17)

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current Rank: #32 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #34 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #28 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #20 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #11 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 52.0
ELO Rating: 2468.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1996.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 75.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.9
Clay: 20.9
Grass: 21.7
Serve Rating: 72.9
Return Rating: 51.8

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 47.4
ELO Rating: 1266.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1808.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 84.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.2
Clay: 11.1
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Doha 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (1-2) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Moez Echargui (2-0) hard Doha 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Rotterdam 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Rotterdam 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Doha, Qatar — Round of 16 on hard courts at an ATP 500-level event. The model favors Daniil Medvedev to win this matchup, assigning him a 63.57% probability versus Stefanos Tsitsipas at 36.43%. The contest is projected to contain about 23.11 total games.

Match Analysis

Medvedev arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 11) with a stronger Elo rating (2468.23) and a slightly higher form index (51.99) than Tsitsipas (rank 32, Elo 1266.38, form 47.42). Fatigue tallies show Medvedev with 75 minutes on court in the event so far versus Tsitsipas’s 84 minutes. Their surface strength indices are both low but favor Medvedev marginally (12.94 vs 10.17). There are notable gaps in the serve and return profiles: Tsitsipas’s mean serve index (97.70) exceeds Medvedev’s (72.86) by over 24 points, and Tsitsipas also holds a substantially higher mean return index (87.99) compared with Medvedev (51.80) — both differences are well above a 5-point threshold and bear on how points will be won. Looking at recent results, Medvedev has one win in Doha over Juncheng Shang (straight sets, 75 minutes) but lost his previous two matches (to Ugo Humbert in Rotterdam and Learner Tien at the Australian Open). Tsitsipas has mixed recent form as well: a straight-sets win in Doha over Moez Echargui, a prior loss to Botic van de Zandschulp, and a win over Arthur Rinderknech in Rotterdam. All listed matches were on hard courts, providing direct recent surface comparability.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is relatively high for a hard-court encounter; the model’s predicted aces total is 15.91. Given the expected double faults, the double faults prediction sits at 5.94 expected double faults for the match. Hard courts typically produce a moderate ace tally compared with grass or clay; here Tsitsipas’s significantly higher serve rating should inflate the predicted aces more than Medvedev’s serve would alone, supporting the predicted aces number.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s edge in the model is driven by his markedly higher Elo, superior ranking and a marginally stronger form index combined with slightly lower in-tournament fatigue. A decisive factor to watch will be how Tsitsipas’s much stronger serve and return indices translate into free points or return pressure — that matchup dynamic will likely determine whether the match stays within the projected range of total games.

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