Gstaad Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #85
56%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #33
44%
Expected Total Games: 22.3
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Why the Model Favors Stefanos Tsitsipas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.7 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Age +3.3 Ignacio Buse
Recent record by level +2.7 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent form +2.6 Ignacio Buse
Surface fit +2.1 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 56% for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #85 2026-07-13
  • 3 mo ago #67 2026-04-13
  • 6 mo ago #33 2026-01-12
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-10-13
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-07-14

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #33 2026-07-13
  • 3 mo ago #60 2026-04-13
  • 6 mo ago #99 2026-01-12
  • 9 mo ago #113 2025-10-13
  • 12 mo ago #167 2025-07-14

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 38.8
ELO Rating: 1658.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1674.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.9
Clay: 22.4
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 91.8

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 42.2
ELO Rating: 1667.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1736.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 26.0
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) grass Mallorca 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (1-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Ignacio Buse
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
1
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

At Gstaad, Switzerland, in the round of 32 on clay at an ATP 250 event, Stefanos Tsitsipas is narrowly favoured to beat Ignacio Buse. The model gives Tsitsipas a 56.17% chance to win versus 43.83% for Buse, with a predicted total of about 22.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Tsitsipas comes mainly from serve & return metrics (a 7.7-point driver toward him), with smaller contributions from recent record by level and surface fit. Tsitsipas brings a strong mean serve index (96.67) and a high mean return index (91.78), which the model views as a net advantage in shorter clay matches; Buse’s serve (95.39) and return (88.41) are solid but slightly behind. Surface fit and recent record by level also nudge the prediction toward Tsitsipas, while age (3.3 points) and recent form (2.6 points) lean toward Buse. On paper Buse is the higher-ranked player (No. 33 vs Tsitsipas No. 85) and carries a marginally higher Elo (1667.86 vs 1658.25). Form indices are close: Tsitsipas 38.8, Buse 42.2. Neither player has tournament fatigue logged. Their surface strength indices are similar with Buse slightly ahead on clay (25.96 vs 22.40). Over the last three matches Tsitsipas has one clear win (Gaston) and two heavy losses including a straight-sets defeat by Djokovic and a prior loss to Buse in Mallorca; Buse has a recent win over Emilio Nava bookended by defeats to Brooksby and Kopriva.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.3 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - Ignacio Buse) +1.0 Most likely spread: +1 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 8.9 for the match and the expected double faults are 4.33. On clay, the predicted aces value is suppressed by the slower surface and higher bounce, while expected double faults can rise with longer points and physical demand. Tsitsipas’ slightly higher serve index may marginally lift the predicted aces, but the surface limits big-serve outcomes.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stefanos Tsitsipas's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tsitsipas’ advantage is rooted in the serve & return game, which the model flags as the top factor. Watch the return exchanges early: if Tsitsipas converts on return pressure he can shorten the contest; if Buse holds and dictates rallies, the match tightens significantly.

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