Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Fritz comes mainly from the serve and return game, which shifts the probability 8.2 percentage points toward him, and from overall strength, which adds 6.7 points. Fritz brings a higher Elo at 1904.13 and a top 10 ranking, coupled with a form index of 60.90. His surface strength index on hard courts is 40.92 and his mean serve and return indexes are strong at 98.41 and 88.19 respectively. Bellucci is ranked 96 with an Elo of 1643.65 and a form index of 53.80. His surface strength index is lower at 19.16 while his mean serve and return indexes are 95.75 and 84.71. Recent record by level also favors Fritz, contributing 5.1 points to the prediction. Fritz arrives after a straight sets win at this event over Darwin Blanch and has two wins from his last three matches, the other being in Cincinnati over Christopher OConnell, with a loss to Brandon Nakashima in between. Bellucci has momentum from a straight sets opening win at the US Open over Zsombor Piros, but his results across the last three include a loss to Luciano Darderi and a win over Martin Landaluce. Fatigue is identical on the numbers provided, both showing 174 minutes played in the current tournament so physical wear is not a differentiator. Surface fit and recent form add smaller but meaningful edges to Fritz.