Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #7
74%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #124
26%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Ranking Trends

Taylor Fritz

  • Current Rank: #7 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #6 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #4 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #4 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #4 (2025-02-17)

Rafael Jodar

  • Current Rank: #124 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #168 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #395 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 12 Months Ago: #903 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 62.4
ELO Rating: 3781.4
Glicko2 Rating: 2026.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.7
Clay: 27.9
Grass: 32.6
Serve Rating: 84.6
Return Rating: 41.2

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 69.6
ELO Rating: 494.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 78.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 3.2
Grass: 3.0
Serve Rating: 93.7
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Taylor Fritz
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-2) hard Dallas 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Dallas 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Korda (2-1) hard Dallas 149 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Dallas 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Dallas 146 min

Rafael Jodar
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Delray Beach 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (0-2) hard Dallas 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Murphy Cassone (2-0) hard Dallas 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mitchell Krueger (2-0) hard Dallas 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Taylor Fritz
vs
0
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Delray Beach, FL — round of 16 on hard courts at an ATP 250-level event sees No.7 Taylor Fritz face Rafael Jodar. The model favors Fritz, projecting a 73.89% chance of victory versus 26.11% for Jodar, with a predicted total of about 22.96 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fritz arrives as the clear favorite by ranking (No.7) and Elo (3781.37) versus Jodar (rank 124, Elo 493.99). Fritz’s form index sits at 62.39 with zero tournament fatigue, while Jodar posts a higher form index (69.57) but carries 78 minutes of on-court fatigue at this event. Fritz’s surface strength index (21.65) is notably higher than Jodar’s (4.77), indicating a better historical fit to hard courts within the available metrics. Serve and return profiles show important contrasts: Jodar’s mean serve index (93.73) is substantially higher than Fritz’s (84.62), and Jodar’s mean return index (90.24) far outpaces Fritz’s (41.23) — both differences exceed 5 points and are likely to shape points aggressively. Over their last three matches Fritz is 2–1, with wins over Marin Cilic and Sebastian Korda and a recent loss to Ben Shelton in a 3-set match; his recent matches have been long. Jodar is also 2–1 in his last three, including a straight-sets win at Delray Beach and mixed results in Dallas, though his shorter matches and tournament minutes contribute to his current fatigue total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this matchup is notable: the model forecasts 16.46 predicted aces in the match. Given the hard surface’s medium pace, this expected ace total aligns with a balanced serving contest. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of 5.44. Because Jodar’s serve rating is significantly higher, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces, while both players can be expected to produce the forecasted double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fritz’s ranking, superior Elo and lack of tournament fatigue give him the edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch is how Jodar’s high serve and return indices translate under fatigue — it will determine whether the match follows the model’s favored shorter, serve-dominated script.

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