Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Terence Atmane vs Grigor Dimitrov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Terence Atmane

Rank: #63
34%
VS

Grigor Dimitrov

Rank: #44
66%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Grigor Dimitrov

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Ranking Trends

Terence Atmane

  • Current #63 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #64 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #69 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #121 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #157 2025-02-24

Grigor Dimitrov

  • Current #44 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #44 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #25 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 25.8
ELO Rating: 752.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 80.9
Return Rating: 55.0

Grigor Dimitrov

Form Index: 24.8
ELO Rating: 1041.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1805.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Grigor Dimitrov
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Dallas 125 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Brisbane 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Brisbane 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Grigor Dimitrov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Acapulco (Mexico), a hard-court match in the round of 32 at a 500-level event sees Terence Atmane face Grigor Dimitrov. The model favors Dimitrov to win (65.59% vs Atmane 34.41%) with a predicted total of about 23.48 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Atmane (rank 63) brings solid serving numbers (mean serve index 80.93) and a competitive form index (25.81) but sits well below Dimitrov on Elo (752.9 vs 1041.3). Dimitrov (rank 44) posts higher surface strength (10.02 vs 5.54) and markedly stronger serve and return profiles. The difference in mean serve index between the two players is more than 5 points, and the gap in mean return index is also substantially greater; both attributes favor Dimitrov and will be decisive on hard courts. Fatigue is neutral for both players (0 minutes on court in this event). Recent form shows Atmane with one win and two losses in his last three hard-court outings — a victory over Patrick Kypson sandwiched between defeats to Frances Tiafoe and Flavio Cobolli. Dimitrov arrives after three straight losses on hard courts, including a tight three-set match in Dallas and straight-set defeats at other events; his match times suggest lengthy recent encounters but no accumulated fatigue reported for this tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Terence Atmane - Grigor Dimitrov) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this matchup is 16.25 total; the predicted aces skew toward Dimitrov given his notably higher mean serve index. The double faults prediction sits at 5.74 expected double faults for the match. On medium-paced hard courts, the expected aces and expected double faults reflect a balance between serve potency and a surface that rewards both servers and returners.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.2 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Dimitrov’s superior Elo and clear advantages in serve and return indices give him the edge in this matchup. Watch his serve/return efficiency early: if Dimitrov converts that edge, the match should tilt quickly in his favor.

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