Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Terence Atmane vs Mattia Bellucci Prediction

Terence Atmane

Rank: #98
46%
VS

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #68
54%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Mattia Bellucci

Why the Model Favors Mattia Bellucci

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +2.5 Mattia Bellucci
Overall record & opposition quality +1.2 Mattia Bellucci
Head-to-head +1.0 Terence Atmane

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Mattia Bellucci. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Terence Atmane

  • Current #98 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #49 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #47 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #64 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #68 2025-10-20

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current #68 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #79 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #78 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #76 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #77 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 28.4
ELO Rating: 1609.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1656.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 82.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.5
Clay: 13.7
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 87.1

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 49.2
ELO Rating: 1631.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1651.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 149.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.4
Clay: 10.3
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 84.4

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Mattia Bellucci
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Mattia Bellucci
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Bellucci is a narrow favorite, with the forecast at 54% for him and 46% for Atmane. The expected total is 24.6 games, pointing to a closely contested match.

Match Analysis

The serve-and-return balance gives Bellucci the main statistical lean, but the advantage is slight. Atmane’s strong service and return play should help keep the exchanges tight. Bellucci is ranked 68th, compared with Atmane at 98th, and his recent win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry supports the edge in overall record and opposition quality. Atmane’s win over Rinky Hijikata was also a positive start in Almaty, and the head-to-head is a modest counterweight in his favor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Terence Atmane - Mattia Bellucci) -0.2 Most likely spread: -1 (Mattia Bellucci wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Atmane is projected for 8.1 aces and 3.2 double faults, while Bellucci is forecast for 7.9 aces and 3.0 double faults. The near-even ace totals fit their similar serve profiles, with Atmane carrying a slight projected advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.4 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Terence Atmane 8.1 + Mattia Bellucci 7.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Terence Atmane 3.2 + Mattia Bellucci 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Terence Atmane

Expected 8.1 aces

Mattia Bellucci

Expected 7.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Terence Atmane

Expected 3.2 double faults

Mattia Bellucci

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Terence Atmane's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (30.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Atmane has spent 82 minutes on court in the tournament, compared with 149 for Bellucci. That 67-minute difference could matter if the match runs long and gives Atmane a path to overturn the narrow forecast.

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