Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Rank: #1000
35%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #90
65%
Expected Total Games: 42.7
Predicted Winner: Pablo Carreno Busta

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Ranking Trends

Thanasi Kokkinakis

  • Current #1000 None
  • 3 mo ago #1000 None
  • 6 mo ago #452 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #244 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #111 2025-05-26

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current #90 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #124 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #89 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #137 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #99 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Form Index: 63.2
ELO Rating: 1585.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1840.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.2
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 92.4

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 60.7
ELO Rating: 1658.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1646.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.7
Clay: 17.1
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Thanasi Kokkinakis
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Pablo Carreno Busta
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Thanasi Kokkinakis
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris sets the scene for this Round of 64 clay duel between Thanasi Kokkinakis and Pablo Carreño Busta. The model favors Carreño Busta to advance (64.87% vs 35.13%), with a projected match length of about 42.7 games — a contest likely to go multiple sets rather than a quick straight-sets affair.

Match Analysis

On paper Carreño Busta carries the higher ranking (90) and a superior Elo (1658.9) compared with Kokkinakis (rank 1000, Elo 1585.3). Form indices are similar (Kokkinakis 63.16, Carreño Busta 60.71) and both arrive with identical tournament fatigue (174 minutes on court), so recent workload won’t be a differentiator. Surface strength indices are modest for both on clay (Kokkinakis 13.16, Carreño Busta 17.12), indicating neither is a clay specialist this event, while serve indices are nearly identical so no clear serving dominance is expected. Return profiles tilt in Kokkinakis’s favor: his mean return index (92.38) exceeds Carreño Busta’s (86.76) by just over five points, suggesting Kokkinakis may generate more break opportunities on the slow, high-bounce courts. Over the last three matches Kokkinakis is 2-1 with two long wins including a five-set Roland Garros opener, showing resilience in tight affairs. Carreño Busta is also 2-1, highlighted by a straight-sets win in his Roland Garros opening match and a pair of concise clay wins in Rome elsewhere, demonstrating efficient match management.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 42.7 Most likely outcome: 42 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Thanasi Kokkinakis - Pablo Carreno Busta) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Pablo Carreno Busta wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 18.26 total for the match and the predicted aces figure is moderated by clay’s slower pace; clay typically suppresses big-server numbers. The expected double faults total is 5.67 — a modest tally but consistent with clay’s longer rallies and physical toll that can lead to unforced serving errors. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so serve-driven ace spikes are unlikely to alter the overall aces prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.3 Most likely: 18 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Thanasi Kokkinakis's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (47.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carreño Busta’s higher ranking and Elo give him the edge on consistency and match control, which is reflected in the predicted outcome. Watch Kokkinakis’s returning — his stronger return index is the key factor that could upset the prediction if he converts break chances early.

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