Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Rank: #1000
22%
VS

Terence Atmane

Rank: #51
78%
Expected Total Games: 36.4
Predicted Winner: Terence Atmane

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Player Metrics

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Form Index: 34.9
ELO Rating: 1531.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1753.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.2
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 92.3

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 42.3
ELO Rating: 1656.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1646.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.9
Clay: 16.3
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Terence Atmane

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Thanasi Kokkinakis
vs
0
Terence Atmane
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — first round on clay at the Grand Slam sees Thanasi Kokkinakis face Terence Atmane in a matchup that pits experience and big-hitting profiles against contrasting recent form. The model favors Terence Atmane to advance, with a 77.82% chance of victory versus 22.18% for Kokkinakis, and the match is expected to produce about 36.37 games.

Match Analysis

On paper Atmane presents the clearer standing: a world ranking of 51 and an Elo of 1656.3 compared with Kokkinakis’s rank listed at 1000 and Elo 1531.3. Form indices also tilt toward Atmane (42.28 to Kokkinakis’s 34.87), while both arrive in Roland Garros with zero accumulated fatigue from the event. Surface strength indices are low for both players on clay but slightly higher for Atmane (16.30) than Kokkinakis (9.34), suggesting Atmane is marginally better adapted to the slow, high-bounce conditions typical of Paris. Serve and return profiles show both players carry strong serving metrics (mean serve index ~95–96) and Kokkinakis has a notably high mean return index (92.26). Recent results reflect diverging momentum: Kokkinakis has two wins and one loss across his last three matches — wins in Adelaide and against Roman Safiullin, and a competitive loss to Jack Draper — all on hard courts and featuring long matches. Atmane’s last three show one win (Rome) followed by two clay-court defeats in Hamburg and Rome against higher-seeded opponents, indicating some vulnerability on clay despite overall higher ranking.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.4 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Thanasi Kokkinakis versus Terence Atmane. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Thanasi Kokkinakis versus Terence Atmane. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Thanasi Kokkinakis - Terence Atmane) -3.5 Most likely spread: -4 (Terence Atmane wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Thanasi Kokkinakis versus Terence Atmane. Positive values indicate Thanasi Kokkinakis winning more games, negative values indicate Terence Atmane winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Thanasi Kokkinakis versus Terence Atmane. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 17.57 for the match while the expected double faults total 6.16. On clay, the predicted aces are restrained by the surface’s slower ball speed and higher bounce, which typically reduces outright service winners; the expected double faults reflect clay’s physical demands and longer rallies leading to occasional serving lapses. Given both players’ similar serve indices, neither is likely to dominate the ace count dramatically.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.6 Most likely: 17 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Thanasi Kokkinakis versus Terence Atmane. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Thanasi Kokkinakis versus Terence Atmane. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Thanasi Kokkinakis versus Terence Atmane. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Thanasi Kokkinakis versus Terence Atmane. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Thanasi Kokkinakis's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (58.5%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Thanasi Kokkinakis's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Atmane’s higher ranking, superior Elo and slightly better clay adaptability give him the decisive edge in this projection. Key factor to watch: which player can impose consistency on serve under clay’s longer-rally conditions — that will likely determine whether the match stays tight or swings in Atmane’s favor.

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