Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Francisco Cerundolo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #19
76%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #92
24%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #19 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #21 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #19 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #18 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #26 (2025-02-17)

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current Rank: #92 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #101 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #117 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #131 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #129 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 66.5
ELO Rating: 2074.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1686.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 91.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 13.5
Grass: 15.3
Serve Rating: 76.0
Return Rating: 86.0

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 60.2
ELO Rating: 652.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 113.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 5.0
Grass: 5.3
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-0) clay Rio 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (0-1) clay Buenos Aires 84 min

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cristian Garin (2-0) clay Rio 113 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Vavassori (0-2) hard Adelaide 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-1) hard Adelaide 124 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 16 clash in Rio (clay) at an ATP 500-level event pits No.19 Francisco Cerundolo against No.92 Thiago Agustin Tirante. The model favors Cerundolo to win (75.91% vs 24.09%) with a predicted total of about 22.03 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets finish is the likeliest outcome.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives with the stronger profile: rank 19, an Elo of 2074.90 and a form index of 66.46. He has moderate cumulative fatigue in Rio (91 minutes) and a surface strength index of 13.48 on clay. His mean serve index is 76.00 and his mean return index is 86.02, underlining a return-oriented game that translates well on slow surfaces. Tirante is ranked 92 with a much lower Elo (652.01) and a form index of 60.25. He comes in more fatigued (113 minutes) and has a lower surface strength index (4.96). Notably, Tirante’s mean serve index (96.57) is substantially higher than Cerundolo’s (difference ≈ 20.6 points), which could produce more free points on serve despite other disadvantages. Across their last three matches Cerundolo has been consistent on clay — three straight wins, all in straight sets (durations 91–111 minutes), showing efficiency and good adaptation to the surface. Tirante’s recent results are mixed: a big Rio win over Cristian Garin (113 minutes) but earlier long hard-court outings at the Australian Open, including a heavy loss to Tommy Paul and a long win over Aleksandar Vukic; those extended matches contribute to his higher fatigue total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.0 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at about 16.46 total, while the expected double faults are 5.44. On clay, predicted aces typically trend lower because the surface slows the ball and increases return opportunities; this is reflected in the expected totals. However, with Tirante’s significantly higher serve rating, he may inflate the ace count despite the clay, which could also affect the expected double faults if fatigue sets in.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s superior ranking, Elo, return ability and recent clay form give him the clear edge in probability. The key factor to watch is Tirante’s serve: if his big-serve production overcomes the clay’s dampening effect, he can create pressure and shorten points, but his higher fatigue and lower clay strength make that a difficult path to an upset.

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