Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan Choinski: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Tirante comes mainly from surface fit (+4.0 points) and his stronger record and recent form at comparable levels (+3.5 and +3.4 points). Those factors align with his higher ranking (No. 65 vs No. 77), superior Elo (1742.6 vs 1583.4) and a notably better surface strength index on hard courts (25.56 vs 10.18). Tirante also posts stronger proprietary form and match metrics (form index 50.21 vs 38.59), and both players arrive with no accumulated tournament fatigue. Serve and return metrics also tilt toward Tirante, contributing +2.8 points to the forecast, though the raw mean serve (96.75 vs 95.27) and return (89.27 vs 87.02) indices are close enough that neither player holds an overwhelming advantage there. Overall strength adds a further +2.7 points to Tirante’s probability. Over their last three matches, Tirante comes off two wins in Toronto — including victories over Alexei Popyrin and Taylor Fritz — before a loss to Learner Tien; Choinski’s recent slate includes a win over Vit Kopriva at Wimbledon but defeats to Frances Tiafoe and Nikoloz Basilashvili, with longer, tougher encounters on grass and clay.