Titouan Droguet vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Droguet comes mainly from surface fit, with a 4.6-point boost toward him, supported by his strong serve-and-return profile. Droguet sits No. 116 with an Elo of 1558.13 and a form index of 35.0; his surface strength index on clay is 18.08. Carabelli is higher ranked at No. 58 with a superior Elo (1607.88) and a slightly higher form index (36.65), which contributes 1.7 points toward Carabelli in the model. Neither player carries tournament fatigue (both at 0.0 minutes). Serve/return dynamics tilt modestly to Droguet: his mean serve index is 97.00 versus Carabelli’s 94.69 (a small gap), while his mean return index (92.85) is meaningfully higher than Carabelli’s (86.58) by over 6 points — a differential likely to matter on clay where breaking serve is easier. Recent form is mixed: both players entered this stretch with two wins followed by a loss in Umag. Droguet beat Luca Van Assche and Alexander Blockx before falling to Daniel Merida; those matches included two three-set affairs (124 and 113 minutes). Carabelli put together wins over Pablo Carreno Busta and Marko Topo but then lost to Roman Burruchaga, also after long matches (164 and 183 minutes earlier), suggesting both have been tested physically.