Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #20
70%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #55
30%
Expected Total Games: 22.6
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

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Ranking Trends

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #20 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-04-07

Tomas Machac

  • Current #55 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #35 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #23 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #23 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-04-07

Player Metrics

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 74.8
ELO Rating: 1849.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1862.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 105.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.6
Clay: 44.9
Grass: 42.2
Serve Rating: 78.7
Return Rating: 85.2

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 51.1
ELO Rating: 1703.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1771.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 138.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.0
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 42.4
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 105 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Miami 65 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Miami 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Miami 137 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-0) hard Miami 84 min

Tomas Machac
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 138 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Jodar (1-2) clay Marrakech 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Miami 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (2-1) hard Miami 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Doha 70 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Cerundolo
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Monte-Carlo Masters in Monaco, Round of 32 on clay, Francisco Cerundolo is favored to advance in this Masters 1000 clash. The model projects Cerundolo to win with a 70.15% probability to Machac’s 29.85%, and forecasts a relatively short match of about 22.6 total games.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 20) with a stronger form index (74.81) and a superior Elo (1849.07) compared with Machac (rank 55, form 51.11, Elo 1703.37). Fatigue is a factor: Cerundolo has played 105 minutes so far in the event versus Machac’s 138 minutes. On clay Cerundolo’s surface strength index (44.90) slightly edges Machac’s (39.88). There is a notable serving gap — Machac’s mean serve index (96.45) is substantially higher than Cerundolo’s (78.74) — while their mean return indices are closer (Cerundolo 85.21, Machac 88.68), so serve-versus-return dynamics will be central. Looking at recent form, Cerundolo has mixed results but arrives with confidence from a 2-0 victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte-Carlo (105 minutes), plus a win over Ugo Humbert in Miami and a straight-sets loss to Alexander Zverev. Machac’s last three matches show resilience on clay: a hard-fought 2-1 win over Daniel Altmaier in Monte-Carlo (138 minutes), a 2-1 defeat in Marrakech, and a straight-sets win over Corentin Moutet in Miami. Those patterns suggest Cerundolo’s steadier recent form and higher return ability give him the edge against Machac’s big serve.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.6 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Francisco Cerundolo - Tomas Machac) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 15.64 total for the match while the predicted double faults total is 4.73. On slow, high-bouncing clay, expected aces are generally suppressed and expected double faults can rise with longer rallies and fatigue. Given Machac’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, even as the surface limits outright free points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.6 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s higher rank, stronger recent form and superior return metrics are the main reasons he is favored. Key factor to watch: whether Machac’s big serve can produce enough free points to shorten rallies and offset Cerundolo’s return pressure.

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