Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Adam Walton vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Adam Walton

Rank: #93
28%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #24
72%
Expected Total Games: 24.5
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Ranking Trends

Adam Walton

  • Current Rank: #93 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #78 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #82 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #91 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #90 (2025-02-17)

Tommy Paul

  • Current Rank: #24 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #20 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #14 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #12 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #9 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Adam Walton

Form Index: 32.0
ELO Rating: 701.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 285.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.5
Clay: 5.5
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 76.2
Return Rating: 59.7

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 63.1
ELO Rating: 1869.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1808.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 150.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.2
Clay: 18.6
Grass: 15.8
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Adam Walton
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-0) hard Delray Beach 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sho Shimabukuro (0-2) hard Delray Beach 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (2-1) hard Delray Beach 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Dallas 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Tommy Paul
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-1) hard Delray Beach 150 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (1-2) hard Dallas 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-1) hard Dallas 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adam Walton
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 match at Delray Beach, FL is being played on outdoor hard courts at a 250-level event. The model favors Tommy Paul, projecting him as the winner with a 72.10% probability versus a 27.90% chance for Adam Walton, and an expected total of about 24.48 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The metrics show a clear gap in class and current form. Walton is ranked 93 with a form index of 32.01 and an Elo of 701.61, while his opponent sits at rank 24 with a form index of 63.08 and a much higher Elo of 1869.04. Walton arrives with 285 minutes of cumulative court time this week compared with Paul’s 150, which suggests greater tournament fatigue for Walton. Both players have modest surface strength indices (Walton 4.49, Paul 15.24), but Paul’s figure is notably higher. Serve and return profiles strongly favor Paul. His mean serve index (96.31) exceeds Walton’s (76.22) by roughly 20 points and his mean return index (90.02) is about 30 points higher than Walton’s (59.68), differences large enough to influence match flow. Walton’s recent run at this venue includes two wins and one loss (victory over Gabriel Diallo, loss to Sho Shimabukuro, and a prior win over Nicolas Moreno De Alboran), while Paul’s last three results show two wins and one loss as well (wins over Corentin Moutet and Jenson Brooksby; a loss to Miomir Kecmanovic). Both have recent hard-court minutes, but Paul’s superior ratings and lower fatigue make him the steadier pick.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.5 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 12.97 total, and the predicted aces are likely to be weighted toward Paul given his much higher serve index. The expected double faults total sits at 5.16 for the match; double faults prediction here suggests a modest number of service errors from both players. On medium-paced hard courts, these figures align with a surface that balances serve potency and return opportunities, and Paul’s elite serve rating should lift the overall ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s combination of higher Elo, stronger form, dominant serve and return metrics, and lower cumulative fatigue gives him the edge on hard courts. The key factor to watch is how effectively Paul’s serve converts into free points and whether Walton can produce enough returns to offset that serving advantage.

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