Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tommy Paul

Rank: #21
57%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #15
43%
Expected Total Games: 37.7
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #21 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #20 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #15 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #11 2025-01-13

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #15 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #18 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #29 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #66 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 89.0
ELO Rating: 1881.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1811.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.7
Clay: 17.1
Grass: 14.5
Serve Rating: 58.0
Return Rating: 57.6

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 84.8
ELO Rating: 2371.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1585.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.0
Clay: 58.9
Grass: 65.3
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 94.6

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Australian Open continues into the Round of 32 with an intriguing matchup between Tommy Paul and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on hard courts in Australia. The predicted winner is Tommy Paul, with a 57.50% probability of victory compared to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's 42.50%. The expected total number of games played in this match is approximately 37.67.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul holds the 21st rank with a form index of 89.03 and an Elo rating of 1881.71, indicating solid performance as he progresses through the tournament. His cumulative fatigue stands at 348 minutes, suggesting he is managing his energy well thus far. Paul has a surface strength index of 13.72 and a mean serve index of 57.98, which is relatively balanced. In contrast, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, ranked 15th and boasting a higher Elo rating of 2371.48, has a form index of 84.79. His fatigue is equal to Paul's at 348 minutes, but he significantly outperforms Paul with a mean serve index of 97.19, indicating a strong serve advantage. In their recent performances, both players have shown resilience. Paul has won his last two matches at the Australian Open without dropping a set, while Davidovich Fokina has also secured victories in his last two matches, although one required a more challenging five-set effort against Reilly Opelka. This suggests that both players are in good form, but Paul’s recent dominance may provide him with a psychological edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.7 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) +1.2 Most likely spread: +1 (Tommy Paul wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 13.22 aces, with a double faults prediction of approximately 4.4. Given that hard courts favor both strong servers and returners, the anticipated ace count may reflect Fokina's superior serve rating. His higher mean serve index suggests he could lead in aces, while the expected double faults indicate that both players will need to be cautious with their serve strategies to capitalize on opportunities without overextending.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul is predicted to have the advantage due to his recent form and mental confidence after consecutive straight-set victories. A critical factor to observe will be how effectively he can handle Fokina's powerful serve and whether he can leverage his return game effectively to counteract the expected aces.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel